Two matches here are decided by who covers the middle of the game. In Toronto, the Raptors' ball pressure meets an Orlando backcourt that just lost its best defender and main handler. In Tampa, Game 5 comes down to which bullpen has to cover more innings with fewer trustworthy arms. In both, the edge sits in the second and third windows of the game, not the opening one.
Toronto and Orlando first. Toronto wins by taking the ball away and getting to the line. It forced 27 turnovers against Chicago, 20 against Washington and 24 at Minnesota, with 12 to 15 steals each time, and drew 46, 21 and 21 free throws. That Minnesota game was played without Leonard, so the forcing does not depend on him. Toronto's half-court shooting is weak, though: just under 32% from three over the recent stretch and only 94 points at Minnesota.
Orlando leaks the ball even at full strength. It gave it away 20 times against Atlanta, 16 against Minnesota and 16 at New York, and Suggs played in all three. Now Suggs is out with a bone bruise, Banchero is still out, and Black is questionable after missing shootaround. That leaves Bane and Wagner carrying more of the ball, with Richardson, a 17-minute player at New York, behind them. Orlando's win at New York came from 18 made threes against a Knicks side that doesn't force much. It never faced this kind of pressure without Suggs.
The early quarters should be fairly even. The swing comes when Toronto's bench pressure meets Orlando's thinner reserve backcourt, and live-ball turnovers turn into transition points and free throws. Without Banchero, Orlando also loses its main way of drawing fouls. That's why I'm siding with Toronto to win the game.
In Tampa, Milwaukee has its named starter, Misiorowski, who allowed one run over five innings in Game 1. Tampa hasn't named one. Rasmussen has never started on short rest, and on full rest in Game 2 Milwaukee's patient hitters ran him up to 89 pitches in under four innings. Either way, Tampa needs five or six innings from its pen.
Go arm by arm and the gap is clear. Tampa's fresh quality relievers (Cleavinger, Matz, Baker, Kelly) cover about four innings. The rest falls on Booser, who got no outs and allowed four runs in Game 3, on Sulser, who gave up four hits in just over an inning, and on Wells and Seymour after heavy recent use. Those innings land in the fourth through sixth, right where Milwaukee's walk-heavy lineup does its work. Milwaukee needs only about four relief innings, and Megill, Uribe, Romero, Hall and Woodruff are all available, so it can avoid its two tired arms. Tampa's offence has scored 11 runs in 39 innings this series. That's why I'm siding with Milwaukee to win the game.
