Both of these games pair a short-handed side against a favourite that lacks the one weapon that would punish the shortage. Sydney don't take the ball away, so a Breakers team with no point guard is less exposed than it looked in Perth. Nagasaki lose the glass almost every night, so a KCC team down to one creator still has a way to win possessions. In both games the margin depends on the second half more than the opening quarters.
Sydney vs the Breakers. Sydney win through Kendric Davis and heavy free-throw volume, and they have beaten the weaker sides comfortably at home. But they had only three steals in each of the four games I opened, and their opponents turned it over 9 to 14 times. The Breakers lost by 16 in Perth without Jackson-Cartwright, but that defence had nine steals and forced 17 turnovers. For three quarters Mennenga kept them level with 40 points and 18 boards, and the Breakers won the glass 47-36.
The absences cut both ways. The Breakers have no true point guard, and Mennenga and Vasiljevic carry heavy minutes. Sydney lose Dellavedova, their secondary handler, so Davis has to create almost everything, and when Adelaide contained him Sydney's half-court offence stalled. This one is also played in Canberra rather than in front of the usual Sydney crowd.
I expect a competitive first half, then a Sydney push in the fourth. Without a defence that strips the ball, though, that push should look less like the Perth collapse. That's why I'm siding with the Breakers to stay within range.
Nagasaki vs KCC. The B.League champions play slow and perimeter-heavy behind three import scorers and a strong home defence. Their weakness is the glass: they were outrebounded in all seven games I measured. KCC with Long have held roughly even on the boards against DB and Mobis, and Long has pulled down 16 and 11 rebounds in his last two games.
KCC are thin. Heo Ung is out of the trip and Lee Ho-hyun had surgery, which leaves Heo Hoon as the main creator. Still, he played 38 and 28 minutes after the talk of managing his back, scoring 26 and 22. Nagasaki's ball pressure is moderate rather than suffocating. This is also Nagasaki's fourth game in seven days, with their core four playing big minutes and a short bench behind them.
The first half should be close, with Nagasaki shaping the tempo. After that, a tired home core has to pull away from a side that keeps winning second chances. KCC's two latest losses were both by six. That's why I'm siding with KCC to keep it close.
