Two matches where one side's most reliable way of scoring runs straight into the other side's clearest weakness. In Rio, Palmeiras' set pieces meet a Fluminense side that gives away a lot of corners and has lost both of its strikers. In St. Louis, the home side's early direct attacks meet a Vancouver back line made up of stand-ins and still tired from playing a man down. In both games, the weakened route belongs to the team I'm opposing.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras. Fluminense like the ball at home, but the numbers behind it are thin: about 1.2 expected goals for and 1.6 against per game, and only around three corners won while conceding more than six. Palmeiras are the opposite. Their defence has conceded about half a goal a game, with seven clean sheets in their last ten, and they win corners in bunches. They scored early from set pieces at LDU, against Corinthians and at the Maracana in August.
The key matchup is Palmeiras' delivery, with Arias on the ball and Gomez and Barboza attacking it, against a Fluminense box that conceded twelve corners at Platense. That route doesn't need Vitor Roque, who is out. Flaco Lopez steps in and scored the winner against Bahia only days ago. On the other side, Cano and John Kennedy are both missing for Fluminense, and Cano's late goal decided the August meeting. Hulk, Canobbio and Savarino are dangerous in transition, but a deep Palmeiras back three takes away the space they want.
Expect Fluminense to carry the ball and Palmeiras to sit compact, as they did at LDU, with the first corners as the early turning point. If it stays tight, a slow first leg suits the visitors; if an early goal opens it up, Palmeiras' counters with Sosa off the bench are the better weapon. That's why I'm siding with Palmeiras not to lose this first leg.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps. St. Louis win by scoring early and going direct: two goals inside seven minutes against the Galaxy, one in the first minute at Portland, and three in the first half at Vancouver in September, when they also edged the possession and the chances. Vancouver want the ball, but their recent losses came with makeshift back lines that gave up big chances at Chicago and at home to DC.
This time Blackmon is suspended and Halbouni is out, so Laborda and Priso pair up at centre-back, with Johnson filling in for Adekugbe at left-back. Muller and Badwal didn't travel either. Navarro and Holse against that pairing, and Totland and Wallem running behind the full-backs, is the matchup most likely to decide the game.
Vancouver also played about 84 minutes with ten men at LAFC on Saturday before travelling, which hurts most in the recovery runs St. Louis aim at. A draw suits both sides in the table, so the first goal matters. St. Louis have the more reliable route to it, and Vancouver's legs should fade after the hour. That's why I'm siding with St. Louis not to lose at home.
