Both of these games come down to the paint and the glass. In Seoul, Samsung's post game and the best perimeter defence in the league meet a KCC side that leans on threes and keeps losing the inside battle. In Funabashi, Chiba lose their frontcourt and are left trying to shoot their way past a defence-first Kyoto team that lives on the boards. Each time, the team that controls the inside has the steadier route.
Samsung are 5-0 because of Kerem Kanter. He is averaging close to 26 points and 11 rebounds, and in his last two games he put up 42 and 14 against LG and 27 and 10 at DB. Behind him, Samsung allow the lowest three-point percentage in the league. KCC are now a Heo Hoon and Louis King team, with Choi Jun-yong and Song Kyo-chang gone and Heo Woong out for three straight games. They shoot threes well, but their offence is the least efficient in the league, KT just beat them by 12 on the glass, and both of their imports fouled out against DB.
The key matchup is Kanter against Shawn Long and Jang Jae-seok. Long is in a slump, KCC give up a lot of free throws, and Kanter gets to the line nine or ten times a game. KCC's best answer is the Heo Hoon and King pick-and-roll against a Samsung back line missing Shin Dong-hyuk, but Anyang took that action away only three days ago. KCC also come in off an EASL trip on an eight-man rotation, with Heo Hoon playing 38 minutes, and the fourth quarter has been their weakest. I expect a close first half before Kanter and the glass pull Samsung clear late, the same kind of margin DB, KT and Anyang beat KCC by. That's why I'm siding with Samsung to win it with a little room.
Chiba are without both foreign bigs, Costello and Randolph, so the interior falls to Gill, the stretch big Luke Maye and Yuta Watanabe. Even with Watanabe on the floor for 32 minutes, they were outrebounded by 11 to 13 boards at Kobe and Levanga and lost both games despite hitting plenty of threes. Watanabe then hurt his foot early in the last game, and there is no update on him. Kyoto win the other way: Charles Jackson and Michael Phillips work inside, the team crashes the glass, and the defence has held most recent Premier opponents to around 80 points.
Chiba's way back is three-point volume and Kyoto's shaky free-throw shooting, so I expect a single-digit game rather than a rout. Still, the middle quarters, when Chiba's thin bench bigs are on the floor, are where Kyoto's interior pair should build the lead, as Tokyo SR, Kobe and Levanga all did. Whether Watanabe plays or not, that glass gap stays. That's why I'm siding with Kyoto to win on the road.
