[26-27 German Bundesliga] VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Preview Kick-off: October 23, 18:30 UTC
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at the MHPArena in Stuttgart for round 7 of the Bundesliga on October 23 at 18:30 UTC. 13th-placed Stuttgart look to end their scoring slump in their first league home fixture in about a month. Bottom-of-the-table Mönchengladbach, who have lost all six of their matches, would set a Bundesliga record for the worst start to a season with seven consecutive defeats if they lose.
1. Match overview and team form
Stuttgart enter this round with a record of two wins and four losses, while Mönchengladbach have suffered six straight defeats. Both teams have scored eight goals, but Stuttgart have conceded 10 to Mönchengladbach's 20. Treating Mönchengladbach's total goals conceded as a reflection of their current defence would miss their shift under new management, though. After letting in 16 goals across their opening four games, they lost both of their matches under Alexander Blessin by a 1-2 scoreline.
This season in the Bundesliga Standings and points: Stuttgart 13th (6 pts) / Mönchengladbach 18th (0 pts) Record: Stuttgart 2W-0D-4L / Mönchengladbach 0W-0D-6L Goals scored / conceded: Stuttgart 8 / 10, Mönchengladbach 8 / 20
Stuttgart have shown a wide gap between chance creation and end product. In the three league games this season where data was tracked, they generated 5.03 expected goals but converted just two. Away at Hamburger SV, they took 24 shots yet lost 0-1. Against Dortmund, they consistently pushed into the attacking third without producing enough threatening attempts, falling 0-1 at home. For a side that finished fourth last season to sit 13th now, the issue runs deeper than merely lacking opportunities.
Their operational quality has shown up better in cup competitions. Stuttgart have collected seven points from three Champions League fixtures, most recently drawing 1-1 with Atlético Madrid three days ago. During that first half, their high press disrupted the opponent's build-up from deep. Angelo Stiller won back possession and set up Jamie Leweling for the opener. Even after Atlético had a player sent off in the second half, Stuttgart could not find a second goal, showing that the finishing problems seen in the league can persist even during strong performances.
Mönchengladbach's six-game skid needs to be assessed across two different phases. They conceded 16 goals in their first four matches, but under Blessin they have allowed two goals per game. Their attack has stalled as well, managing only one goal in each of those two outings. In their previous match against Hoffenheim, they equalised in the 49th minute only to concede again five minutes later, generating just 0.47 xG according to the data centre. Goalkeeper Moritz Nicolas made six saves to keep the margin at one, but Mönchengladbach rarely threatened after levelling the score.
Venue splits also matter for this outlook. Mönchengladbach have scored seven goals in their three home league games, but away from home they have managed just one goal across three trips, scored against Köln. They lost 0-3 at Leipzig and 0-5 at Freiburg, though both heavy defeats came before Blessin took charge. The sample size on the road under the current manager is just the 1-2 loss to Köln, so those earlier blowouts cannot be assumed to repeat automatically.
Both squads will look different in terms of personnel. Stuttgart right-back Josha Vagnoman picked up a hamstring injury against Atlético Madrid and misses out. Vagnoman started all six league matches this season, recording two goals and an assist. His absence is more than a standard defensive swap, as he pushes up the right flank into the penalty area to create shots and crosses. Lorenz Assignon replaced him against Atlético and is a candidate to start, though he has not completed 90 minutes as a starter this season.
Mönchengladbach are missing nine players, according to Blessin. Captain Tim Kleindienst and Isac Lidberg are both out, leaving Shuto Machino as the only traditional centre-forward available. In central defence, Kou Itakura and Jan Leszczyński are sidelined. Fabio Chiarodia and Daiki Hashioka are projected to feature in a back three, and if Hashioka slots into defence, Philipp Sander can return to midfield. Blessin also noted that a false nine is an option. Whoever starts up front will be tasked with holding up the ball under pressure to allow the second line time to push forward.
In terms of schedule, Mönchengladbach have had two extra days of rest. Stuttgart are back in action three days after facing Atlético Madrid, and Hoeness has rotated his lineup during tight turnarounds. Ligainsider's projected XI leaves out Deniz Undav and Bilal El Khannouss, with Ermedin Demirović and Dženan Pejčinović stepping in. The lineup is not confirmed, but that combination would change the balance between the first-half attack and second-half substitutions compared to the Atlético match.
Stuttgart lead the recent head-to-head with six wins and three losses in their last nine meetings. Last season, Stuttgart won both encounters, 1-0 at home and 3-0 away. Mönchengladbach carved out the better early chances in both games, however, and saves from then-Stuttgart goalkeeper Alexander Nübel shaped the outcome. Today, Mönchengladbach have a new manager and forward line, while Dennis Seimen has recently taken over in goal for Stuttgart. Rather than past scorelines, the way Stuttgart turned opponent errors and wide attacks into goals provides the clearer reference.
2. Matchup analysis
The central battle pits Stuttgart's high press against Mönchengladbach's first pass out from the back. Stuttgart generated their opening goal against Atlético Madrid by regaining possession high up the pitch. Mönchengladbach, in Blessin's debut against Köln, had a short backpass intercepted and gave away the winner after losing the ball in midfield. Against Hoffenheim, they spent stretches late in the first half repeatedly passing backwards without making forward progress. Today, with key absences in central defence, Stuttgart can generate shot opportunities in Mönchengladbach's half if they press the moment the ball reaches the defenders.
If Blessin deploys Machino as the focal point, Mönchengladbach can bypass the press with long balls. That strategy only works if Machino secures possession and brings Hugo Bolin and Wael Mohya into the attack. Running a false nine allows an attacking midfielder to drop deep and receive passes, but it leaves the team without a target man to battle Stuttgart's centre-backs. Sander's expected return to central midfield should help their distribution. To play out through short passing, Mönchengladbach must find Sander cleanly right as Stuttgart trigger their press.
Stuttgart face their own tactical adjustments through squad rotation. El Khannouss was central to winning the ball and pressing against Atlético, but he is not in the projected starting XI. Vagnoman is unavailable, and Führich, Leweling and Stiller all started three days ago. If Hoeness rotates and his side still maintains their pressing intensity, they can force mistakes in the opposing third. If that intensity drops, Mönchengladbach can advance through Sander into midfield, leaving Stuttgart vulnerable to long spells of sterile possession without goals, much like the Hamburg match.
Absences will shape both flanks differently. On Stuttgart's right, Assignon must replicate the forward drive and attacking support Vagnoman provided within this rotated setup. Facing him, Mönchengladbach's Lukas Ullrich set up Joe Scally's equaliser against Köln with a cross from the left. When Ullrich pushes forward, Mönchengladbach gain an attacking outlet, but that leaves space behind for Leweling to exploit. On the opposite side, Scally will contend with Führich's dribbling and pressing. If Mönchengladbach push their full-backs higher after falling behind, Stuttgart should find extra room to add to their lead.
Set pieces offer Stuttgart an alternative route to goal if their open-play pressing stalls. Jeff Chabot opened the scoring with a header against Paderborn 07, and Stuttgart's second goal against Mönchengladbach in January came from a Führich corner. Mönchengladbach conceded against Köln when they failed to clear a loose ball from a free kick. While that single example does not guarantee a set-piece goal today, extended Stuttgart spells in the attacking half will generate corners, forcing Mönchengladbach to defend second balls inside their box.
Mönchengladbach still carry counter-attacking threat. Mohya finished a swift transition for the equaliser against Hoffenheim, and Ullrich's deliveries produced the goal against Köln. Stuttgart also conceded the decisive goal against Hoffenheim this season after having a pass intercepted in their own half. Mönchengladbach can create chances if they pick off Stuttgart's passes out from the back or break into wide areas immediately after bypassing the press. With their main strikers missing, however, sustaining attacks through hold-up play will be tough to replicate over 90 minutes.
3. Prediction and conclusion
Stuttgart are likely to dominate territory in Mönchengladbach's half and secure the victory. Stuttgart's press directly targets the opposition centre-backs and their initial passes into midfield. Mönchengladbach have tightened up defensively under Blessin, but without their top two centre-forwards, their options for breaking out and sustaining attacks are slim. Even if Hoeness rotates his lineup, bringing on Undav and El Khannouss in the second half gives him strong bench firepower.
The market heavily favours the home side based on Mönchengladbach's losing run and heavy goal concession alongside Stuttgart's chance creation. There is little debate on the outcome. The main variable is total goals. 16 of the 20 goals Mönchengladbach conceded came in the four matches before Blessin took over, and their own scoring has slowed down under his setup. Stuttgart are playing on three days' rest and should rotate parts of their front line. We do not expect this game to hit the high goal totals seen across Mönchengladbach's full season record.
We predict a 2-0 or 3-0 home win for Stuttgart. The most plausible scenario sees Stuttgart score first after winning the ball through an early press, then find a second on the break as Mönchengladbach push their full-backs forward. A second-half substitute or a loose ball from a corner could supply that second strike. If El Khannouss and Undav start and sharpen the first-half attack, the scoreline could reach 3-0. For this forecast to go off course, Mönchengladbach would need to capitalise on an Ullrich delivery or turn a Stuttgart defensive turnover directly into a goal.
