[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Torino vs AC Monza Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 23, 18:45 UTC
Torino and AC Monza meet at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino at 18:45 UTC on October 23 for Matchday 8 of Serie A. Torino are chasing a third consecutive league win for the first time since 2019, while newly promoted AC Monza are looking for their first away league victory. AC Monza won 1-0 at the same ground in a cup match in September, but players who were absent then are expected to be key for both sides this time.
1. Match overview and team form
As of October 22, Torino are 10th with 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats from 7 matches. AC Monza are 14th with 2 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats. Torino have beaten Udinese and Parma in succession. AC Monza have also won 2 of their last 3 league games, but both victories came at home. To assess the teams’ recent results, we need to look at their opponents and how the matches unfolded.
Serie A this season Record after 7 matches: Torino 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats / AC Monza 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats Goals scored and conceded: Torino 10 and 9 / AC Monza 13 and 15 Home and away records: Torino at home 1 win, 2 defeats / AC Monza away 1 draw, 3 defeats Home and away goals scored and conceded: Torino at home 3 and 5 / AC Monza away 5 and 11
Since Rolando Mandragora and Daniel Bragança joined on deadline day, Torino have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 5 league matches. Mandragora started all 5. Their wins came against Fiorentina, Udinese and Parma, while they lost 2-0 at home to top-side AS Roma during the same spell. The results have clearly improved since the midfield was strengthened, but this match will show whether that change can also work against a more aggressive press.
Torino’s 3-0 win away to Parma last time out also needs more context than the scoreline alone. The data centre recorded expected goals of 1.56 for Torino and 1.57 for Parma. Against Udinese, by contrast, Torino led 2.42 to 0.70 on expected goals and won 2-1. Across Torino’s last 3 matches with expected-goals data, they had the higher total than their opponents, but the three-goal margin against Parma did not reflect the difference in chances.
AC Monza’s 4-0 win over Cagliari calls for similar caution. The expected-goals figures were 2.06 for AC Monza and 2.37 for Cagliari, and Noel Törnqvist denied the opposition a one-on-one chance and close-range shots. AC Monza have scored in all 9 of their competitive matches this season, but they have conceded 11 goals in 4 league away games and are still without an away win. The clean sheet against Cagliari alone is not enough to show that their away defending has changed. Gustavo Varela has been central to their attack, scoring 6 goals in 6 league appearances.
The managers’ approaches matter when we look back at the September meeting. Ivan Juric coached Torino from 2021 to 2024 and now uses a 3-4-2-1 at AC Monza, with a high press and man-marking. AC Monza followed opponents closely and made challenges all over the pitch in the cup match. Torino coach Ignazio Abate said his players lost their spacing after the first 25 minutes and won very few second balls. Mandragora and Bragança now strengthen the midfield that was missing then, and Che Adams is expected to start up front.
Torino will be without Ricardo Rodríguez, Emirhan İlkhan and Nicolò Fortini. Ardian Ismajli had already taken over the left-sided defensive role against Parma, so the main issue is the build-up ability of a left-footed centre-back rather than a change to the starting XI. İlkhan’s absence also limits Torino’s midfield options off the bench. AC Monza are missing Matteo Pessina and Jan Ziółkowski, neither of whom has played this season. Andrea Colpani appears to have missed team training, so his availability is uncertain. If he is out, Dany Mota or Patrick Cutrone could fill one of the attacking midfield spots. Lorenzo Lucchesi has served his suspension and is competing with Saba Goglichidze for a starting place in defence.
Torino are unbeaten in 6 Serie A meetings with AC Monza, with 3 wins and 3 draws. But 4 of those matches came when Juric was Torino’s coach. The only meeting between the current managers was the September cup match, which AC Monza won. That result does not carry over directly to this game. Mandragora and Bragança were absent for Torino then, while Varela was unavailable for AC Monza. Both teams played their last match on October 19 local time, so they have had almost the same amount of rest. AC Monza, though, face Napoli and Bologna just two days apart after this match, which could affect their starting lineup or the minutes given to key players.
2. Match-up analysis
The key contest is over who wins the second ball after a long pass. AC Monza have attempted 373 long passes in Serie A this season and Torino 360, the two highest totals in the league. In September, Torino played forward to escape the press but could not recover the loose ball. This time, Mandragora and Nikola Vlašić are expected to be joined by Bragança or Gvidas Gineitis. If Torino field 3 midfielders, they will outnumber AC Monza’s 2 central midfielders.
That numerical advantage will not automatically put Torino on top. AC Monza can send attacking midfielders such as Jay Robinson and Mota deeper to contest second balls and add numbers in that area. The trade-off is that they would put less pressure on Torino’s defenders. If they keep pressing the back line, Torino’s midfielders may have a chance to reach the loose balls first. Juric’s choice and Torino’s success in the challenges will determine whether this match differs from September.
Torino’s attack is likely to start with Adams and Giovanni Simeone up front, supported by right wing-back Rafiu Belghali pushing forward. Against Parma, Belghali crossed from the right for Simeone’s early opener, then helped set up the second goal after winning and moving the ball on. Adams also scored with a close-range header. AC Monza conceded twice inside the opening 25 minutes in away games against Lecce and Lazio. If Torino deliver the ball into the box from wide areas early, as they did against Parma, they can target a weakness AC Monza have shown on the road.
Belghali will come up against AC Monza’s left wing-back, Ricardo Mangas. Mangas pushed forward to trouble Torino in the September cup match and has started all 9 of AC Monza’s competitive games this season. When Belghali attacks, Mangas can advance into the space he leaves behind, forcing Torino to defend that flank. If Belghali keeps sending in crosses, Mangas will also have to spend more time defending. The wing-backs’ positions will directly affect how much each team can sustain its attacks down the flanks.
In the middle, Varela gives Torino’s defence a new problem to solve. AC Monza won in September without him, with Mota finishing a low ball from Omari Forson on the left. This time, Varela can contest long balls up front or finish inside the box. If Pietro Comuzzo wins the first challenge, he can stop AC Monza’s direct play. If Varela holds up the ball, Robinson and the other attackers can join the next move.
AC Monza also have a set-piece route to goal if they lose the midfield battle. Varela scored from a Samuele Birindelli corner against Sassuolo, while Goglichidze headed in a ball laid off by Mota against Lazio. Torino have conceded in 8 consecutive Serie A home matches. In competitive home games this season, they conceded 3 goals between the 40th minute and half-time. That timing alone does not establish why they conceded, but AC Monza’s winner in September also came in first-half stoppage time. Even if Torino take an early lead, they will need to keep dealing with AC Monza’s attacks late in the first half and after the break.
Managing the game after scoring first will test both teams. Torino dropped deep after going 2-0 up against Parma, and Abate said they could not take control again during a 20-minute spell under pressure. If that happens again, AC Monza can keep attacking and win corners. If Torino regain possession, Abate could bring on Sandro Kulenović to drive forward through the middle. Kulenović came off the bench to beat a defender and score an equaliser against Bologna, and he also scored a winner after coming on against Udinese. The Udinese goal came into an open net after the goalkeeper and a defender collided, so the two goals should not be treated as the same move repeated.
If AC Monza score first, they could sit back and look to counter as they did in September. Torino had possession then but could not find a way through AC Monza’s man-marking. The changed midfield and Adams’ involvement give Torino more options today. If AC Monza concede first, the pressure on their away defence will grow as they chase the game. In the data centre’s last 10 competitive matches, AC Monza lost all 4 games in which they were behind at half-time. That records the half-time score, not which team scored first, and the sample is only 4 matches. Still, it illustrates the situation AC Monza could face if Torino’s early attack produces a goal.
3. Verdict and prediction
We see more evidence for Torino scoring first. Belghali’s runs down the right and the finishing of Adams and Simeone worked against Parma, while AC Monza conceded twice early in each of their 2 league away matches. Mandragora has also joined a Torino midfield that lost the second ball in September. But if Torino sit back after taking the lead, AC Monza can fight back through Varela in the box and Birindelli’s corners. Even if Abate brings on Kulenović to score in the second half, Torino will need to limit AC Monza’s set-piece chances to protect a lead.
The market leans towards Torino because of home advantage, their current 2-match winning run and their unbeaten Serie A record against AC Monza. Much of that head-to-head record came when Juric was in charge of Torino. Considering Torino’s recent tendency to drop back after taking the lead, and AC Monza’s set-piece threat, we do not have enough reason to expect Torino’s edge to turn into a win.
Our predicted score is Torino 2-2 AC Monza. We expect Torino to take the lead early with attacks down the right, then AC Monza to draw level late in the first half. Torino’s attacking substitutions could produce another goal after the break, but AC Monza are likely to level from a set piece. If Torino’s midfielders keep winning second balls and give AC Monza very few corners or free kicks, Torino could hold on to the lead and produce a different result.
