Ajax's wide supply and box arrivals meet a newly improvised Atalanta central defence. Bournemouth's early forward passes meet a Milan side planning further rotation. Both matches put the link between the first pass and the receiver under close examination.
Ajax have a demonstrated aerial connection to Arokodare and midfielders arriving for the next ball. Atalanta retain De Ketelaere's supply to Scamacca and wide combinations that helped their response at Milan. Ajax's current coach still identifies problems after losing possession and in the middle block, giving those away connections room to operate.
Kolašinac is a new defensive loss after his Milan injury, joining the absent central defenders. Elmas travelled after serving a domestic suspension, restoring an attacking connection rather than adding another absence. Ajax continue without Blind and Berghuis despite their return to training. I expect width, box occupation and changing receivers to sustain attacking exchanges through the match. That's why I'm siding with plenty of goals in Ajax against Atalanta.
Bournemouth's attack has two recent routes: Smith crossed for Evanilson against Sturm, while Cook found Evanilson to release Tavernier before Sunderland's dismissal. These connections test Milan's recent problems with turnovers, low deliveries and the next runner. The home case comes from those sequences rather than transferring the entire Sunderland shot count.
Ramos and Chukwueze are newly unavailable after both played against Atalanta. Cisse will play according to Amorim, while the newer projected midfield changes the linking roles previously supplied by Rabiot and Modric. Bournemouth's continuing absences were already present against Sunderland, with Smith an established replacement for Araujo. I expect the hosts to press the altered first pass and use Evanilson to connect the next attack. Their greater attacking continuity is why I'm siding with Bournemouth to win.
