Forest's problem in front of goal is real, but Glasner has already told us the other half: he does not expect Forest to create as many chances against Arsenal as they did at Crystal Palace. That is the interesting tension in this match. A side that had 24 shots and still lost 3-1 now has to score from fewer of them, against a champion missing William Saliba, with Igor Jesus also out and Gibbs-White's availability the thing to watch.
Forest first. At Palace they put up 24 shots and 2.97 xG against 13 shots and 2.38 xG for the hosts, so creation was not the issue, finishing and the three goals they let in were. Sports Mole has Forest on five league goals in six games, with Delap on one in 350 minutes, and Glasner said he asked Chris Wood to talk to the forwards about finishing in training. Our match notes from Glasner's Friday press conference list Jesus (calf) and Savona (knee) as out, and Gibbs-White as having missed the week's training before being expected back for the Saturday session. Forest were also ahead after 3 minutes at Palace, so early pressure is something they can do.
Arsenal's side. Arteta's press conference rules out Saliba (back, another MRI next week), Tzolis and Hincapie, and Zubimendi was still to be assessed after the Saturday session. The in-form numbers are less tidy than they look: in the Champions League 3-0 over Lille, our records show 16 shots and 1.85 xG to Lille's 4 shots, but the goals all came after the 64th minute. At Brighton in September they had 60% of the ball and 1.63 xG and lost 0-3.
So I would not frame this as strong attack against weak attack. The question is whether a patched Arsenal back line, probably with Konsa covering at centre-back per the expected line-ups in our notes, is more at risk in the first half hour than in the last, and whether Forest, with fewer chances to waste, can take one early. If the Gibbs-White question goes the wrong way for Forest, that route gets narrower.
