Racing go into the Avellaneda derby with a caretaker on the bench and a home record that keeps punishing them for having the ball. Their last league game at home was 62% possession and 13 shots against Belgrano, and they lost 0-2 to a side that had 38% of it. The one win since Sebastián Romero took over came at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with 47% and a 2-0 lead by half-time. Independiente are built the other way round, which makes this less a question of who is better and more a question of who is willing to wait longer.
Independiente's split is about as clear as it gets: four wins from six away from home with three goals conceded, against one win in six at home. Their recent road results came without much of the ball, 44% in the 2-1 at Unión and 47% in the 0-0 at Talleres. When I looked at that Talleres trip last week I thought the hosts would have to come at them; in the end neither side scored. Maximiliano Meza is back in the squad after his ban, per Locos x el Rojo, and he matters here. He scored at Unión, and the 1-4 home defeat to Instituto only came apart after he was sent off just before half-time with the score at 1-1.
The pressure on the benches pulls in opposite directions. Jadson Viera called this game "all or nothing", and Montevideo Portal reports his job depends on it, while Locos x el Rojo describes the win as crucial for a playoff place in Zone A. So the side that has looked most comfortable sitting off is also the side that most needs three points. Racing, 13th in Zone B, are in a different spot: Vojvoda left after the Copa Argentina defeat to Boca and Romero is interim until the end of the year, according to Racing de Alma.
Racing's selection adds a wrinkle. Matko Miljevic was left out of the squad over his attitude (Racing de Alma), and El Primer Grande lists Di Césare, Carboni, Córdoba and Forneris as still recovering. Reports disagree on the midfield: Racing de Alma says Romero tested Zaracho in place of Ortegoza in a 4-4-2, while Minutouno's probable XI keeps Ortegoza. That's not a small detail, because Ortegoza set up the opener at Río Cuarto.
The derby itself has been tight for years. The last six league meetings in our record finished 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2, and eight of the nine meetings we hold had two goals or fewer. So my question is who blinks first. Does Romero let Racing sit and accept that a draw is fine against a coach who needs more than that, or does the home crowd push them into chasing it and hand Independiente exactly the kind of game they've been winning on the road?
