Both of Grêmio's goals in their last two league games went through Wallace: he set up Kannemann at Remo and scored the equaliser in the Gre-Nal. He's suspended for Cruzeiro's visit, and Renato's answer looks like a back three with Noriega dropping in, the same shape that held Palmeiras to 0-0. That's a shape for surviving games, and Grêmio, 18th and still without a win since Renato came back, need to win this one. What makes it interesting is that Cruzeiro arrive with much of their own attack missing, so Grêmio may be setting up to protect against a threat that isn't fully there.
Grêmio's season split is extreme. All seven of their league wins have come at home, with 23 scored and 17 conceded there, and away they have none from 15. The 0-0 with Palmeiras is the template Renato keeps going back to, per Zona Mista, but it wasn't a controlled game: Grêmio had 28% of the ball and Palmeiras took 31 shots, with ten saves keeping it level. In the Gre-Nal it went the other way, 67% and 1.58 xG for one goal from a centre-back.
Cruzeiro, seventh and chasing a Libertadores place, travel without Gabriel Pec (fibula fracture), Luis Sinisterra (thigh) and Felipe Morais (suspension), according to No Ataque, and Itatiaia reports Néiser Villarreal didn't make the trip either. Lucas Romero is expected back in midfield. Artur Jorge has called it "one more final" where only a win counts (O Tempo), but his side's away numbers are the soft spot: 28 conceded in 15 games on the road, and four more at Bragantino in their last match.
So the matchup is a bit crossed. The back three makes sense against a full-strength Cruzeiro, but the visitors' attacking width is depleted, and the part of their team that has actually leaked goals is the defence on the road. If Grêmio sit as they did against Palmeiras, they might keep Cruzeiro quiet and still not create the chances they need, especially with their main set-piece threat in the stands. I'm curious whether Renato trusts the shape enough to push the wing-backs on, or whether a point against a top-seven side feels like progress to him.
