This matchup turns on how long each starter can carry the game and what the first bullpen handoff looks like. Rasmussen has worked deep with tight control, while Messick held Tampa Bay to one run in each of two regular season starts and allowed no earned runs over five innings in their recent meeting. Cleveland has scored after Rasmussen left, and Tampa Bay's top order drove its latest win. The middle innings should shape the late-game contest.
Cleveland's Kwan and Ramírez can set the table for DeLauter and Lowe, while DeLauter and Bailey have already homered off Rasmussen. Across from them, Díaz, Aranda and Caminero give Tampa Bay a strong top of the order, with speed and contact behind them. Messick's changeup and his recent work against this lineup make the first three trips through that order the central pitching matchup.
The available Game 5 report lists no new injury to either projected core. Cleveland held Gaddis, Sabrowski and Smith out of its previous game, giving it a rested late relief group. Tampa Bay also has Booser, Kelly and Wells available behind Rasmussen, so both clubs have clear ways to cover the final innings.
Messick's recent five-inning start points to Cleveland handing the game to that rested trio around the middle innings. Cleveland's Kwan–Ramírez–DeLauter–Lowe chain has already produced late against Tampa Bay, and its lower order has supplied a home run in this series. That's why I'm siding with the Cleveland Guardians to win.
