Two Korean matchups where the deciding layer is clear. In Daegu, the starting pitchers' recent outings and the two bullpens matter more than names or season numbers. In Jamsil, one team's main weapon, scoring twos in the paint, runs straight into the other team's weakest unit. In both, the trailing side has a real way back, but it needs a better-than-usual night.
Samsung vs KIA, Game 2. KIA won the opener by getting runners on early and scoring with two out: a walk, a steal and hits from Kim Do-young, Castro and Na Sung-bum gave them five runs in the first four innings. Their pen then threw four-plus scoreless innings with nobody working long. Samsung managed two hits. That was not only rust after a long break, because their bats had already stalled before the playoff, with 29 runs over the last ten regular-season games.
The pitching matchup tilts the same way. Jurado has slipped since his shoulder injury, his last start lasted four innings with six runs allowed, and he now comes off more than two weeks without a game. Oller's latest outing was a clean postseason quality start. Oller has struggled against Samsung in Daegu before, and Jurado once went seven innings against KIA. Both are small samples and roughly cancel each other out.
Samsung's pen is also without its 35-save closer and two left-handed relievers, all off the playoff roster, while KIA's relievers are rested and deep. The first three innings should set the shape. If KIA get to Jurado early again, Samsung's cold lineup has to chase against a fresh bullpen. That's why I'm siding with KIA to win the game.
SK vs KCC. SK win inside: Warney, Hicks and An Young-jun lead the league in paint makes, and SK protect their own rim, holding opponents to about 19 twos a game with few free throws. KCC concede the most points in the league and allow the most paint makes, a gap that opened when their defensive forwards Song Kyo-chang and Choi Jun-yong left in the offseason.
KCC's way back is the three-point line through Heo Hoon, Kim Dong-hyun, Yoon Ki-chan and Heo Woong, against an SK perimeter that has given up volume. At KCC's usual level that only trims a few points off the inside gap. KCC's imports have also fouled out before against two scoring bigs, their bench is thin, and Heo Hoon has been tired by his own coach's account. Nothing new on the availability side: Heo Woong is back but not fully fit, and Tolentino's absence was already part of SK's last win.
Expect SK's interior pressure to build through the middle quarters and turn into a margin late, as KCC's thin rotation fades. That's why I'm backing SK to win by more than a couple of possessions.
