This match at Loftus Road asks QPR to do the one job they have struggled with all season: break down a team that sits deep and gives them the ball. Derby's long absence list looks alarming, but the players they will field already started their last match. QPR's own missing players hit exactly the part of the pitch this game depends on. On this structure, a draw is the most natural outcome.
QPR change shape depending on the opponent. Away at stronger sides they sit and counter. Against teams that hand them the ball they dominate without much bite: 72% possession at Charlton ended 0-0 with only two shots on target, and at home to Middlesbrough they lost 0-1 despite sixteen shots. Their best home display, the 2-1 over Cardiff, came with only 37% of the ball. Derby away from home are a low-possession, direct side (34% in their win at Portsmouth), and with a draw an acceptable result for them, they should leave QPR to carry it.
The key battle is QPR's build-up without Chair against Derby's midfield screen of Mowatt and Ozoh. Chair has been out since early September, which is exactly the span of QPR's four-game draw run, and Burrell, who scored both goals against Cardiff, is also missing. QPR's clearest route is out wide, with Poku and Kolli isolating Derby's makeshift full-backs Ward and Hedges, who are both natural wingers. That back four was tested against Wrexham and conceded only once, late on.
Derby's absence list includes their first-choice keeper, but Vickers, Ward, Hedges, Langas and Sanderson all started that last match. On the field, nothing new changes. Kone is back for QPR but is cleared for only around half a game.
The flow should be QPR on the ball with Derby breaking through the runners Szmodics and Clark and aiming for Morris in the air. The first goal is the turning point. When QPR have led this season, they have stepped off: their second-half chance creation collapsed at West Ham and West Brom, and they were pegged back both times. Derby have scored in seven of their last ten, and QPR have kept only two clean sheets in ten.
That's why I'm siding with Derby not to lose this match.
