Two Western nights where one defence is the story. Phoenix have not held anyone under 116 in eight measured games, and Orlando arrive rested with a returning guard. In San Francisco, Golden State's three-point volume meets a Miami perimeter that has leaked all season, and Miami come in on the second night of a back-to-back after an overtime win in which their starters played heavy minutes.
Phoenix against Orlando first. Phoenix conceded 116, 132, 124, 127, 119, 125, 122 and 123 in their measured games. They leaked against strong attacks like Denver and San Antonio and against weak ones like Utah and Portland. Two measured habits sit behind it: they send opponents to the line about 32 times a game while drawing about 23, and without Mark Williams they lose the glass by about six a night.
Orlando's attack looks modest on paper, about 104 a game since Banchero went out, but those games came against mid-level defences. They will not have met a defence this loose. Wendell Carter and Vucevic give them the bigger frontcourt against Maluach and Ighodaro, so second chances should come. Anthony Black returns after resting, which brings back the drive-and-foul route their low Washington game was missing. At the other end, Booker took 13 free throws in 34 minutes the night before and plays through the hit he took. Orlando are without Suggs, their best on-ball defender, so Phoenix's own scoring should hold up.
The flow should be steady through the middle quarters, where Phoenix concede the most. Orlando's fresher legs and offensive rebounding can push the scoring up late against a home side on the second night of a back-to-back. Neither team has a defensive shape that slows the other, so I'm backing the points to keep coming in this one.
Now Golden State against Miami. Golden State take about 41 threes a game at close to 39 percent. Their five-game winning run came against Denver, Minnesota, both Los Angeles teams and Phoenix, all decent-to-strong defences. Miami have conceded 115 or more in six of their last eight and give up big three-point volume: 19 makes to the Lakers, 17 to Indiana and 16 to the Clippers.
Miami's routes are real. Giannis attacks a Golden State frontcourt that has no Porzingis behind Green and Horford, Adebayo scored 35 in that overtime win, and Klay Thompson will want this one against his old team. But the same starters played 43, 41, 41 and 35 minutes the night before. Giannis shot 8 of 20 with a sprained shooting wrist, and the bench pieces Miami tried were badly outscored in brief minutes.
Golden State, on three days' rest, get Horford and Brandin Williams back for depth. Miami should start level on energy. The gap should open after the break, when tired legs meet a deeper rotation and Golden State's shooters keep firing at a perimeter that cannot close out. That's why I'm siding with Golden State to win at home.
