Both of these games come down to the glass. In each one, a size-built home team meets an opponent whose frontcourt has already been beaten on the boards by sized lineups this season. KB arrives with a frontcourt thinned by an injury and a departure. Gunma's guards are good, but its rebounding has leaked against every big frontcourt it has faced.
Hana Bank vs KB Stars. Without Park Jisoo and the departed Kang Yi-seul, KB's frontcourt is Song Yun-ha plus guards listed between 164 and 170cm. That group lost the rebounding battle by 23 in its only league game and managed just nine assists. Hana's two-centre lineup of Jin An and Yang In-young is built to punish exactly that, and last season's only meeting without Park went to Hana by ten points. Park's most recent dated status was light training only.
Hana should build through second-chance points and free throws in the paint, and the third quarter is its window to protect. KB's way into the game is volume three-point shooting off kick-outs.
SeaHorses Mikawa vs Gunma. Mikawa play three import bigs: Gardner, O'Mara and White. Gunma lost the glass to Ryukyu, Utsunomiya and Alvark, which accounts for three of its four recent losses. Gunma's guard pressure and free-throw volume are real and win some of that back. Even so, Mikawa's two-point efficiency and size on the boards count for more. The one strong opponent both teams have played is Alvark, and Mikawa won there by nine while Gunma lost to them at home by fourteen.
Mikawa have been strong in the first and third quarters at home, and Gunma's best counter is a Stanley Johnson shooting stretch. With the rebounding row behind them, the home side should stay in front or very close all the way.
That's why I'm siding with Hana Bank to win at home and with Mikawa to keep it within reach or better against Gunma.
