[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Venezia vs Udinese: Match Preview Kick-off: November 6, 19:45 UTC
Venezia, in 20th, and Udinese, in 19th, have both changed managers. Venezia have conceded fewer goals under Davide Nicola, while Udinese are set for Paolo Zanetti’s first match in charge.
1. Match overview and team form
Venezia have three points, but their six straight league defeats before Nicola took over should be viewed separately from their performances now. In four league matches under Nicola, they have won once and lost three, scoring one and conceding four. Those goals came from long-range shots, two own goals and a penalty. Their opponents have not repeatedly exploited one particular route to goal. Venezia have still failed to score in their last three league matches, so their finishing remains a problem (Eurosport Italia, November 5). They had 19 shots against Genoa but could not score, with the goalkeeper making saves and a header going wide. They created fewer chances against Como 1907.
Nicola is sticking with a 3-5-2 and weighing up his selection to cope with the opposition’s physicality (CalcioNews24, November 5). Pasquale Mazzocchi’s crosses and Matteo Dagasso’s corners are aimed at the front two and Kike Pérez. If Lion Lauberbach plays, Venezia will have another target for crosses. If John Yeboah starts, they will have more runs from the second line linking up with the forwards. The absences of players who have yet to feature this season have little impact on the current starting lineup.
Udinese are 19th with five points. After a 5-2 defeat to Roma, new coach Zanetti said he would use either a 3-5-2 or a 3-4-2-1 to suit the players already at his disposal (TuttoUdinese, November 4). With only three days to prepare for his first match, it is hard to predict changes to the defence. Udinese have recently conceded from headed crosses, runs from the second line, defensive line coordination and rebounds parried by the goalkeeper. They have also struggled to score despite taking 20 shots against Parma and 26 against Cagliari. First-choice striker Keinan Davis is a doubt, with his fitness to be assessed right up to the match (ANSA, November 5). If he misses out, Udinese could be weaker at holding up the ball up front and linking with teammates.
2. Matchup analysis
Venezia’s wing-back crosses will first test Udinese’s defending in the penalty area. Udinese conceded in the first half against Roma from a header off a cross from the left, a run in behind and a headed corner. If Mazzocchi delivers crosses with both Venezia forwards in the box, Udinese’s back three will have to track the two strikers and Kike Pérez arriving from deeper. Venezia have also created headed chances from corners, so Udinese could still be vulnerable from set pieces even if they stop the crosses in open play. The caveat is that Venezia have struggled to turn their recent chances into goals.
The midfield setup is the key on the other side. If Venezia use a 3-5-2 and Udinese a 3-4-2-1, Venezia would have Kike Pérez, Gianluca Busio and Simon Sohm in central midfield, while Udinese’s Nicolò Zaniolo and Jürgen Ekkelenkamp could receive the ball to either side of them. If Venezia’s outside centre-back steps out to follow them, space opens up next to the defence. If he holds his position, the two Udinese players can carry the attack forward facing goal. A 3-5-2 from Udinese would change the numbers in central midfield. Left wing-back Hassane Kamara’s attacking runs will also test Venezia’s right side of defence.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Venezia to get in front by targeting Udinese’s penalty-area defending with crosses and set pieces, then drop deeper and protect a one-goal lead. Their 1-0 win over SSC Napoli under Nicola is evidence they can manage a lead. Venezia did, however, allow an expected goals figure of 2.36 in that match. Taking the lead does not mean they can prevent opponents from creating chances.
The market favours Venezia, and we agree with that direction. The most direct reason is that Venezia’s crosses target the same areas from which Udinese have recently conceded, rather than Udinese’s poor form alone. We do not expect a big win or many goals. Venezia have scored once in four matches under Nicola, while Udinese failed to convert their many shots against Parma and Cagliari. If Udinese supply Zaniolo and Ekkelenkamp in the space beside Venezia’s midfield and score first, Venezia will have to find a way past a defence sitting deep, despite their recent finishing problems.
[Final picks · by market · based on Betman offerings] Full-time result: Venezia win. Their crosses and set pieces match the patterns behind Udinese’s repeated concessions, and Udinese will take on the first match under a new manager with the same defensive lineup. Handicap -1: Draw. Under Nicola, Venezia have dropped deeper to protect a lead and have lacked finishing efficiency, making it difficult to extend their advantage beyond one goal. Over/under 2.5: Under. Both teams have scored little relative to their chances. Venezia are likely to sit deeper after taking the lead, and Davis’s fitness could weaken Udinese up front.
