Palmeiras have been the side doing most of the pushing in their recent games and getting less back for it than the numbers suggest, while Bahia keep turning scrappy, late-swinging matches into wins. That makes this less a question of who has the better squad and more one of whether Palmeiras' territory turns into a goal before the game gets messy. I'd watch the first goal more than anything else: when Palmeiras have scored early this stretch, the match has stayed theirs.
Palmeiras first, from the match records in our DB. In the 0-0 away on Sept 20 they had 31 shots to 7, 72% of the ball and xG of 2.49 against 0.97, and still left without a goal. On Sept 6 it was another 0-0 away, this time 17 shots to 14 and xG of 1.11 to 1.10, so that one was far closer than the possession (67%) implies. Compare the home games: 1-0 on Sept 9 with 27 shots to 6 and a goal by the 26th minute, and 2-0 on Sept 12 with the goals at 45+1 and 50, though the visitors were down to ten from the 39th. The season average in the table data is 1.88 scored and 0.84 conceded per league game, so the scoring drought is a matter of away games and chance quality, not a broken attack.
Bahia are harder to pin down, because their wins are untidy. On Aug 23 they won 2-0 away from a 0-0 half-time with 28 shots and xG of 4.32, but the goals only came in the 67th minute and at 90+7. On Sept 5 it was 2-2 at the break and 3-2 at the end, with a penalty in the first half. On Sept 14 they won 2-1 at home after leading from the 20th minute, with a penalty at 90+1 and another conceded at 90+6. All three wins come with a high xG for Bahia (2.36, 4.32, 2.20) and a lot of late or set-piece drama, which is a different thing from comfortable control.
So the interlock I'd look at: Palmeiras will probably own the ball, as they did in both scoreless away games, and Bahia have shown they can live in a game with less of it and still produce chances. If Palmeiras score first, Bahia's habit of leaving it late faces a team that doesn't concede much. If it stays level into the last half hour, the pattern of those two 0-0s and Bahia's late goals both start to matter. The last three meetings in our records were all one-goal games, the most recent in April going Palmeiras' way 2-1 away. Palmeiras also have the Corinthians derby and a Libertadores tie against Fluminense coming up, which could shape who plays the second half of this one, though I have no confirmed lineup to point to.
