Both of these games turn on the same question: what happens to a team's interior when its key big or creator is missing. Philadelphia was already losing the glass with Joel Embiid on the floor, and now has neither Embiid nor its only other true backup big. Orlando built its offence around Paolo Banchero as both creator and foul-drawer, and it has to play without him. In both matchups, the other team's strengths line up directly against that hole.
Philadelphia vs Detroit. Philly is 3-0 because of its perimeter creators (Maxey, Jaylen Brown, Edgecombe) and a defence that forces a lot of turnovers. Even so, it lost the rebounding battle in all three games, and badly against Milwaukee. Embiid is resting on the back-to-back and Jabari Walker is out with a knee injury. That leaves Bona, the undersized Dean Wade or LeBron at small-ball centre against Detroit's Paul Reed, Collins and Tolu Smith. Detroit already proved its size edge away at Miami with Duren out for most of the night, and Reed put up a double-double off the bench.
Philly's real weapon is its pressure on Detroit's loose handling, and that will produce some easy runs. But Embiid's trips to the line leave with him, while Cunningham keeps attacking a rim with no protector. Maxey and Brown are also on heavy back-to-back minutes against a Detroit team with two days of rest. I expect Detroit to build the margin in the second and third quarters, through second chances and free throws while Bona sits. That's why I'm siding with Detroit to win on the road.
Knicks vs Orlando. The Knicks have started 0-2 on cold perimeter shooting, but their structure held up in both losses: they won the glass and got Brunson, Towns and Anunoby to the line again and again. Orlando's defence has fouled a lot and been beaten on the boards, and Isaac is out. The bigger change is Banchero's ankle. With him, Orlando shot 39 free throws against Atlanta. Without him for most of the Minnesota game, they lost by 22 at home and were crushed on the glass.
Without Banchero, Orlando's half court falls back on Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and a lot of threes. That can keep a game close for a while, but it doesn't replace the free throws or the rebounding. I expect the Knicks to win the glass and the free-throw line, and to pull away against Orlando's bench in the middle quarters. That's why I'm backing New York to win at home.
