Two MLS matches where the table and recent results paint a cleaner picture than what is happening on the pitch. New England's winning run is built on a goalkeeper and late penalties, not on control. Columbus arrive in Texas on their fifth game in about two weeks with their midfield screen gone. In both, what each side is producing now matters more than the standings.
New England have won three straight, but in those games they were outshot 65 to 27 and created clearly less than their opponents. Turner saved them at Philadelphia, and two of the wins needed late goals, including a stoppage-time penalty. The one recent home game where they had to keep the ball, against Seattle, ended in a 0-3 loss with almost nothing created.
That matters because New York are a pressing, transition team in good current form. Over four games they have created about twice what they allowed, including a big chance haul against Miami on barely a third of the ball. With Sands doubtful, winger Peyton Miller is likely at left back for New England, and a converted winger receiving on the touchline is exactly what a press hunts. New York do lose Bazan to suspension, and Gil's delivery against a reshuffled back line is New England's best route. Even so, I trust the repeated pattern of New England conceding chances more than their run of results. I'm with New York to avoid defeat.
In Frisco, the story is legs. Columbus played on 10-18, went 120 minutes in a cup final on 10-21, played again on 10-24, and now travel. After the break against Toronto they gave up a lot of chances even while leading. Bangoura's red card and Gomes's injury strip out the two midfielders who make Courtois's deep five-man shape work, and Mendez did not train.
Dallas are fresher and solid at home: unbeaten in their last six there, with only four goals conceded. Musa leads the line and they are among the best in the league in the air, which helps against the Columbus corner routine that has produced several of the Crew's recent goals. Columbus can still sit deep and frustrate, as they did at Cincinnati, and Dallas have struggled to break down a set low block. That's why I'm backing Dallas without the draw: they win the main branch, and a stalemate doesn't hurt.
