This match puts a side that wins without the ball against a side that insists on having it. New England wait, break and get ahead before half-time, while Inter Miami under Kily Gonzalez keep possession and give up plenty of chances while doing it. The two styles fit together rather than clash, so the game should turn on who holds the lead, not who holds the ball. Both defences leak, which makes the first goal the moment that matters most.
New England's last seven wins all look alike. They had between 35% and 51% of the ball in those games and led at half-time in every one. The route is Carles Gil feeding Turgeman and Peyton Miller quickly after a regain, plus penalties, and it does not need many shots: they reached 1.53 expected goals from just four shots in one recent win. Their bad nights come when they have to carry the game. They lost 0-3 at Real Salt Lake with 67% of the ball and 0-3 to Seattle with 57%, trailing at half-time both times.
Miami's name hides a narrower record. Their three wins in the last ten came against DC, NYCFC and Atlanta, all in the lower half of the East. Against Cincinnati, Columbus, Nashville, Chicago, San Diego and the Red Bulls they took no wins from six. Their first halves in those games are slow, they conceded first in four of them, and holding the ball has not protected them: the Red Bulls took 19 shots and built 3.65 expected goals against them.
The key matchup is Gil and Turgeman against Miami's screen, with Casemiro, a converted midfielder, at centre-back. If the first pass after a regain beats the first line, Turgeman is running at a back line that has been opened up repeatedly. Miller against Miami's right back is the most open zone on the pitch for both teams, because Messi drifts into the space he leaves. Messi leads the league in shots but has gone two games without a goal or an assist, and Matt Turner made 14 saves across last week. Polster's return in front of the back four should help after the Red Bulls took 20 shots at Gillette with him on the bench for an hour.
The absences change little for New England. Harrison and Yusuf have not played since September, so this whole run was built by the group expected to start. Miami are without Caicedo, and Kily Gonzalez has said he will probably change his team after conceding in three straight games, though no names are confirmed.
I expect Miami to hold the ball for the first half hour and build slowly, with New England sitting in a mid block and looking for Gil. If New England score first, Miami push, Messi drops deeper and the second half opens up, which gives New England more breaks and keeps the game lively to the end.
That's why I'm siding with New England at home. This is the state they play best in, built by the same coach and the same players against carriers of a similar level, and it is a state Miami have not handled against the better sides in the league.
