Mobis and Seoul may stay close early while each tests the other's first pass into the paint. The real separation should come from who creates another good shot after the first defensive adjustment. Lion City and Adelaide offer a different version of that test: possession may belong to Adelaide, but the sharper box entries can come from Lion's pressure and wide attacks. Both games turn on the next effective chance after the first scoring spell.
Seoul found Kanter and McCullough in the earlier Ulsan meeting, then answered when Mobis cut the gap late. Mobis can crowd those entries, but its recent group struggled to turn pressure into steals and lost the paint and extra-shot exchanges. Bazley, whose passing and defensive work drove Mobis' best response, missed the last game and remains out; Prim is also out. Spellman is newly registered after missing that game, with little team training behind him. Seoul's two interior scorers played its last game, and their repeat scoring gives them the stronger route through the middle quarters. That's why I'm siding with Seoul Thunders to pull away.
Lion made repeated box entries and accurate shots even with less possession in Adelaide, then found a further chance after Adelaide pushed back. Perth also showed how Adelaide's first pass can be pressured into a dangerous turnover. Goodwin played the first meeting but missed Perth and is confirmed absent for this trip, taking away a left-sided supplier; Kitto, Muniz and Anselmo were used from the bench at Perth after starting against Lion, so their starting roles here are unconfirmed. Lion rested many regulars in its domestic match, and Phaeton and Thy give it another attacking wave. That's why I'm siding with Lion City to find the winning goal.
