[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok preview and analysis Kick-off: November 5, 17:45 UTC
Levski Sofia look to Reinaldo to exploit the space behind opponents when they push forward. Jagiellonia Białystok want to keep the ball and win it back in the opposition half. The two teams’ attacking approaches will put their opponents’ build-up play under pressure.
1. Match overview and team form
Coach Julio Velazquez said Levski Sofia would not change their approach based on the opposition (Bulgarian News Agency, November 4). They are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 with Reinaldo and Serginho up front (Sports Mole, November 4). Reinaldo beat his marker to score against NEC Nijmegen, then intercepted a weak back pass against Viktoria Plzeň to set up the opener before finishing a low ball from the left for the winner. He was involved in all three of the team’s goals across those two matches.
Their six-match unbeaten run in competitive games came in three league matches, one cup match and two Europa League matches, all away from home. Their most recent home Europa League game was a 1-0 loss to Salzburg, in which they had 14 shots but none on target. That shows how their attack can look different when opponents deny space in behind and avoid mistakes at the back. Svetoslav Vutsov’s saves have helped defensively, but his pass in front of goal led to an equaliser against NEC Nijmegen. Velazquez also admitted that his side lost the ball close to their own goal in the first half against Viktoria Plzeň (Sega, October 23). Vutsov and Marko Grujić, who were rested for the weekend cup match, are expected to return to the starting XI (7dni sport, November 2).
Jagiellonia Białystok coach Adrian Siemieniec sees the battle for possession as a key factor (Radio Białystok, November 4). Their expected 4-3-3 has Kajetan Szmyt, Nik Prelec and Ousmane Sow in attack. They fell behind against Ararat Armenia but came back to win 3-1. Against Anderlecht, though, they were pressed high and conceded the opener after a passing error in their own half, eventually losing 3-0. Their expected goals in that match were 0.26. Three straight wins since then, two in the domestic league and one in the cup, provide grounds for confidence, but they do not show whether the team’s build-up has improved under intense pressure.
Levski Sofia are back at home after six consecutive away matches (Bulgarian News Agency, November 4). Both teams played their previous league match on October 31, so they have had the same rest period. Jóźwiak is not included in Jagiellonia Białystok’s expected starting XI. If he does not start, Szmyt and Sow are likely to take the wide positions.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup begins in front of the Levski Sofia goal. If Jagiellonia Białystok’s front three press Vutsov and the centre-backs, Levski will again face the problems they had playing out from the back in the first halves against NEC Nijmegen and Viktoria Plzeň. The visitors have also been credited with winning the ball in the opposition half and scoring from it (Interia). Grujić’s return to midfield would give the defenders another passing option to help play through the press. Even if Jagiellonia win the ball high up, they still need to turn it into a shot.
The second matchup is how Jagiellonia Białystok defend after pushing forward. If the visitors move their back four high to support their possession game, Reinaldo will have room to run in behind. That was the route to his goal against NEC Nijmegen, and against Viktoria Plzeň he intercepted a back pass and helped create a goal for a teammate. Maicon also joins the attack down the left and sends in low passes. The winner against Viktoria Plzeň came after El Mehdi Moubarik played the ball to Maicon. If the visitors’ wide attackers fail to track Maicon’s runs, their full-back could be left to handle both players. On the other hand, if Levski lose the ball after Maicon has advanced, Sow can attack the space on that side, having shown his ability to beat defenders.
Both teams have turned opponents’ mistakes at the back into goals, and both have conceded when pressed. So the key is who reacts first to defend immediately after losing the ball, rather than which team has more possession. If Levski Sofia take the lead, they could limit the opposition’s chances as they did against Viktoria Plzeň. If Jagiellonia Białystok score first, the hosts will have to attack instead of waiting for space behind the defence.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
We expect Levski Sofia to take a narrow lead by exploiting the space behind the visitors’ defence when they push forward to keep possession. Vutsov and Grujić are expected to return to the starting XI (7dni sport, November 2), and Reinaldo has turned opponents’ forward movement and defensive mistakes into goals in each of his last two Europa League matches. Jagiellonia Białystok, meanwhile, managed just 0.26 expected goals against Anderlecht’s intense press (Data Center, match on October 23). With both teams’ chances heavily dependent on mistakes at the back and quick transitions, we expect a low-scoring game.
The market makes a home win the most likely result and leans slightly towards over goals. The difference between those two calls is the number of goals. The potential for quick transitions does not mean both teams will create several good chances. Levski Sofia failed to put a shot on target at home against Salzburg, who did not make defensive mistakes, while Jagiellonia Białystok also created fewer chances under intense pressure.
The outlook would change if the visitors’ early press forces a mistake from Vutsov or a centre-back. If Levski Sofia fall behind and push forward, Sow and Prelec could attack the space they leave. Vutsov is expected to return, but that does not remove the risks when Levski play out from the back.
[Final picks · by market · Betman market format] Full-time result: Home win. The visitors push their back four forward to keep possession, giving Reinaldo room to run in behind. The expected return of key players and home advantage also favour Levski. Handicap -1: Draw. Levski tend to concede few chances after taking the lead, but they do not create enough in one match to make a two-goal win likely. Handicap -2: Away win. For Levski to win by two or more goals, they would need to turn several opposition mistakes into goals, and we do not have evidence for that today. Over/under 2.5: Under. Both teams want possession and will press each other, which should limit clear chances. Their scoring also depends on mistakes by the opposition at the back.
