[26-27 UEFA Conference League] Universitatea Craiova vs KF Egnatia preview and analysis Kick-off: November 5, 20:00 UTC
Universitatea Craiova attack with crosses from both flanks and a high press. KF Egnatia have said they are coming to win, but their captain drops back to form a back five when they defend.
1. Match overview and team form
Universitatea Craiova had 16 shots despite just 36% possession away to Inter Club d’Escaldes. Carlos Mora and Nicușor Bancu each supplied a cross that led to a goal inside the opening five minutes. Their opener against Getafe came after Alexandru Cicâldău pressed an opposing defender and won the ball back. They can win the ball in the opposition half or move quickly down the flanks without keeping possession for long. Coach Filipe Coelho said the flow of the game would change over the 90 minutes (DigiSport, November 4).
Their eight-match unbeaten run in competitive games spans the league, cup and Europe, and most of their big wins have come against domestic opponents. Against Getafe, they created fewer chances than their opponents, with an expected goals figure of 0.6. They also scored just once across two games against Ararat-Armenia in August. That makes the key question how well their wide attacks and pressing work against KF Egnatia today, rather than their recent results. Striker Monday Etim is out, but Coelho replaced Assad Al-Hamrawi with Steven Nsimba at half-time in the previous match. Simon Elisor also came off the bench to score in Europe. Even with this being their fourth match in a tight schedule of games every three days, they have options to bring on in attack in the second half.
KF Egnatia lead the Albanian league, but have drawn both of their Conference League matches, with expected goals figures of 0.59 and 0.79. They created few chances against AGF Aarhus even after their opponents were reduced to 10 men in the third minute. They will also be without Ildi Gruda, who scored both of their goals in those two matches. Coach Nevil Dede expects Gruda to be out for several weeks (Panathinaikos, November 5). Gruda has finished both crosses with headers and passes played in behind the defence. Defender Eljon Sota is also out, while Eneo Bitri’s availability is uncertain. The visitors will have a squad of 20 players to choose from (Balkanweb, November 4).
2. Matchup analysis
The first matchup is Mora and Bancu’s crossing against KF Egnatia’s back five. The visitors will have more bodies in the box if they sit deep, but the central defensive pairing could change depending on Sota’s absence and Bitri’s condition. If the hosts deliver early crosses from both sides as they did against Inter Club d’Escaldes, the new combination will have to deal with them before it has settled. If the visitors cut out those crosses and hold their shape, the hosts will find it harder to attack. In that case, the balls Alexandru Cicâldău and Ștefan Baiaram receive in front of the penalty area, along with Al-Hamrawi’s shots from distance, will matter.
The second matchup is the visitors’ build-up from the back against the hosts’ press. Dede said KF Egnatia did not come only to defend, but to try to win (DigiSport, November 4). If they play forward with the ball, Cicâldău could get a chance to press an opposing defender’s control of it, as he did against Getafe. If the visitors keep dropping deep, though, they will have to deal with the hosts’ wide attacks for long stretches. Their counterattacks rely on passes in behind when the hosts push forward, but Gruda, who turned that kind of pass into a goal against AGF Aarhus, is unavailable this time. Whether a replacement can do the same job is key to the visitors’ attack.
The difference in squad options could become more pronounced after the break. The hosts can bring on Elisor and Nsimba. KF Egnatia have fewer options from the bench, with a busy schedule and absences adding to the problem. If the hosts are ahead and the visitors push forward, more space will open up behind the visitors’ defence for attacks.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Universitatea Craiova to win and the margin to grow. The hosts have the players to deliver crosses and press, along with attacking options for the second half. The visitors have lost their leading scorer in Europe and a starting defender, and will have to face attacks down both flanks with a new defensive combination.
The market also favours the hosts. The more direct reason, though, is today’s tactical matchup rather than their unbeaten domestic record. If the visitors push forward, they could lose the ball under the hosts’ press. If they drop into a back five, they will have to defend crosses with a changed defensive combination. The outlook would change if the visitors score first from a pass in behind or a mistake by the hosts. They could then protect their lead with a back five and saves from goalkeeper Mario Dajsinani, while the hosts might struggle to score as they did against Ararat-Armenia.
[Final picks · By market · Betman listing] Full-time result: Home win. Gruda, who finished the visitors’ two routes to goal, is out, while the hosts have all the players they need to deliver crosses and press. Handicap -1: Home win. If the hosts go ahead, the visitors will have to push forward. With a short bench and no Gruda to score a reply, the margin could grow. Over 2.5: If the hosts take the lead with early crosses, the visitors’ shape will open up. The hosts have also conceded from individual moments when opponents push forward.
