Samsung against Hyundai is no longer the matchup the head-to-head record describes, because Samsung now have a second finisher next to Hoki. Pathum against Tai Po is a midfield-control side at home against a visitor that has not yet scored at this level. One match turns on whether the weaker side can finish sets, the other on whether the stronger side keeps pushing after its first goal.
In the cup Hyundai beat Samsung comfortably, with a block that only had to read Hoki. Wang Bin was not there. On his debut he scored thirty-five points, eleven of them from the back row, with the veteran Yoo Kwang-woo spreading the ball. Hyundai's serve is still the big weapon and will target Wang Bin's reception, but his back-row route does not need a perfect pass. Hyundai's setter position is unsettled, and their coach said the team lost focus after twenty points in every set of their opener. Samsung closed two tight sets in their own opener. Hyundai should be the stronger team overall, but I expect Samsung to win at least one of the close sets in the middle of the match. That's why I'm siding with a longer match in Daejeon.
A week ago in Hong Kong, Pathum had most of the ball, six shots on target to Tai Po's none, and three goals from midfield runs before half-time. Tai Po have not scored in three games in this competition. Pathum need the win to stay in the race for the top two, so they have no reason to rotate their senior midfield. Tai Po's coach wants to score their first goal, which means coming out once they fall behind and leaving the space for a second. That's why I'm backing Pathum to win clearly at home.
