Two road teams in these games look underrated, for the same kind of reason. In Miami, the home side's problem is its starting five, not its bench, and that unit is set to start again. In Oklahoma City, a 3-0 team on the second night of a back-to-back is missing its rim protector, its best wing and its point-of-attack defender all at once. In both games the favourite's usual way of building a margin runs into a roster hole the price does not fully show.
Miami against Dallas first. Miami are 0-3, and the numbers show where it goes wrong: the starting group of Mitchell, Thompson, Wiggins, Giannis and Adebayo has been outscored by 30 in 31 minutes together. Miami also lost the boards in all three games, including to a shorthanded Charlotte, and allowed 16 to 21 made threes a night. Their best stretches have come from the bench group, like the 25-4 run and the strong fourth quarter at Charlotte.
The key matchup is Giannis at the rim against Gafford. Dallas is without Lively, Aldama, Marshall and Biberovic, so Gafford is the only real centre, and that is Miami's clearest edge. But the glass has been Miami's own leak, so Dallas' thin frontcourt does not automatically turn into Miami second chances. Dallas leaked turnovers against Houston and San Antonio, both teams that pile up steals. Miami only gets 7 to 9 steals a game, so that leak should be smaller here.
The lineup news matters most. Irving is off the injury report and Flagg is listed as probable. That is the pair that won at Indiana by 16 while forcing 19 turnovers, and both missed the heavy loss to San Antonio. With them back, Dallas can attack Miami's starters early and play their pressure-and-run game. Miami's bench can win the second quarter, but a big margin needs the starters to stop bleeding as well.
In Oklahoma City, the Thunder have won on defence and turnovers: 22 and 26 forced in their last two games, with margins of 12, 12 and 7. All of that came with Holmgren anchoring the rim. Holmgren, Wallace and Jalen Williams are all out, after Dort, Joe and Wiggins left in the offseason. That leaves Caruso as the only proven stopper against a rested Booker and Green.
OKC still have real weapons: Gilgeous-Alexander, their ball pressure against a Phoenix team that coughs it up 15 to 16 times a game, and Hartenstein against a Phoenix frontcourt reduced to the rookie Maluach. Expect OKC to start strong. The game should turn in the bench minutes, which now go through McCain, Stirtz, Mara and Kenrich Williams on tired legs. That is where Booker, staggered against the reserves, can keep Phoenix close.
That's why I'm backing Dallas to stay close in Miami and Phoenix to stay close in Oklahoma City. Both favourites need more than their usual winning margin, with weaker units than the ones that built it.
