[2026-27 DFB-Pokal] Hamburg vs Frankfurt preview Kick-off: October 27, 17:00 UTC
Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at Volksparkstadion in the second round of the DFB-Pokal at 17:00 UTC on October 27. The single-leg tie will decide who reaches the round of 16, and the sides will meet again in Frankfurt in the Bundesliga about five days later. The key questions are whether Hamburger SV can connect its defending with counterattacks despite several key absences, and whether Eintracht Frankfurt can break down a deep-lying opponent.
1. Match overview and team form
The teams have similar league points totals, but their recent trajectories differ. Hamburger SV have taken 9 points from 7 matches, with 3 wins and 4 losses. They conceded 12 goals without scoring in their first three games, but won 3 of the four matches after Merlin Polzin made defence the priority. Eintracht Frankfurt have 8 points from 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. Their early games featured plenty of goals at both ends. After a 6-0 loss to RB Leipzig, Adi Hutter switched to a back four and two forwards.
League form Before the changes: Hamburger SV, 0 goals scored and 12 conceded in their first 3 matches / Eintracht Frankfurt, 9 scored and 10 conceded in their first 4 Recent stretch: Hamburger SV, 6 scored and 4 conceded in 4 matches / Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 scored and 1 conceded in 2 matches
Recent results alone make it hard to call either side the favourite. Hamburger SV have reduced the chances they allow since changing their defensive setup, but against Stuttgart they won with an 88th-minute goal despite an expected goals against figure of 1.69, higher than their 1.42 xG. Their 3-2 comeback win over Hoffenheim came after the opposition were reduced to 10 men in the 65th minute. Their three-game winning run ended against Paderborn after Fábio Vieira went off injured in the 13th minute, disrupting their attacking link-up. Hamburger SV managed one shot on target and 0.43 xG, then conceded in the 88th minute. They kept their deep defensive shape but could not turn a regain into a scoring chance.
Eintracht Frankfurt's changes have first shown up in defence. They beat Köln 1-0 after switching shape, then lost 1-0 to Dortmund. Their combined xGA across those two matches was 2.21, down from 4.03 against Leipzig alone. They scored just once in the same two games. Against Köln's compact defence, Frankfurt spent much of the second half crossing and looking for headers before Noel Aseko-Nkili and Younes Ebnoutalib combined down the right for the winner in the 77th minute. Against Dortmund, Jonathan Burkardt and Ebnoutalib had chances in the first half, but Frankfurt dropped deep after the break and created no more clear openings. With only two matches to judge, it is too early to know whether the more secure defensive setup will keep working in attack.
Hamburger SV have the bigger personnel changes. Captain Nicolai Remberg and Bilal Nadir are out of central midfield, and Vieira is also unavailable. Vieira has linked play to the forwards after regains and taken set pieces. Yussuf Poulsen, who scored twice in the last four league matches, is also missing. Defenders Nicolás Capaldo and Jordan Torunarigha are out as well, but Shafiq Nandja, Sebastiaan Bornauw and Warmed Omari, who started against Paderborn, remain available. The defensive absences do not mean Hamburger SV will be fielding a back three with no previous understanding. The greater change is in the central partnership ahead of them, which has to block passes and move the ball forward.
The predicted line-ups have Otto Stange leading the line for Hamburger SV, with Burkardt and Ebnoutalib up front for Eintracht Frankfurt. The two forwards have scored 8 of Frankfurt's 10 league goals this season. Polzin has announced that cup goalkeeper Sander Tangvik will start. Tangvik played all 90 minutes in the 3-0 first-round win, and this is part of a planned cup rotation. The confirmed outfield line-ups will be announced before kick-off.
Polzin acknowledged that injuries have reduced his options, but said the available players must take responsibility for this cup tie and the fixtures that follow. Hutter and captain Robin Koch stressed the importance of the cup. Both teams played away in the league on the same day before this match, so neither has a major rest advantage. If the tie is still level after 90 minutes and goes to extra time, Hamburger SV will have harder decisions to make with fewer substitutes available.
Recent head-to-head results favour Hamburger SV. They drew 1-1 at home and won 2-1 away in last season's league meetings. In those matches, they created chances through defensive errors, set pieces and quick transitions. But Vieira, who scored the winner in May, is out this time. Eintracht Frankfurt also have a different coach and squad from those meetings. Those games offer examples of how the sides can attack each other, but they do not provide a direct forecast for this tie.
2. Match-up analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt are likely to have more of the ball early, while Hamburger SV sit with their defence close to the penalty area. Hamburger SV defended with 34% possession against Stuttgart before winning with a late counterattack, and dropped into a 5-3-2 in the first half against Paderborn. If they hold that shape, it will reduce the space behind the defence that Burkardt and Ebnoutalib found in the first half against Dortmund. Their pace alone does not mean they will get the same chances here.
The central area in front of Hamburger SV's defence will matter instead. When Remberg went off injured against Hoffenheim, Hamburger SV struggled to control attacks through the middle. Nadir, who later took over that role, is also unavailable. If the new midfield pairing cannot block the passing lanes, Frankfurt's forwards can receive the ball in front of the defence and combine with teammates instead of running in behind. A short pass between Aseko and Ebnoutalib led to the winner against Köln, showing one way to break down a compact defence. For Hamburger SV to make the most of their numerical advantage in the back three, their midfielders first need to limit service into the two forwards.
Hamburger SV will have time to respond if Frankfurt rely on repeated crosses from wide areas. Frankfurt found headed chances against Köln, but the winner came from a short combination rather than a cross. Hamburger SV can defend the box with their back three and wing-backs dropping in. If the wing-backs stay close to the defence, though, there will be fewer options ahead of them when possession is won. That problem left Hamburger SV short of attacking chances after Vieira's early exit against Paderborn. Vieira is absent from the start this time, so getting the ball to Stange and the supporting attackers after a defensive stop will matter.
Hamburger SV's route forward is still available down the flanks. Frankfurt right-back Nnamdi Collins gets forward and made a poor positional decision against Köln that gave the opposition a chance. If a Hamburger SV wing-back can receive the ball after Collins advances and move it quickly, they can counter down that side. Stuttgart's winner also came from a counterattack led by substitute Zakaria El Ouahdi, who played the ball to Miro Muheim. El Ouahdi is in the predicted starting line-up this time. If he starts, Hamburger SV will not have the same option of bringing him on late to change the pace of the attack.
Set pieces give Hamburger SV a way to score even if they cannot sustain attacks. Three of their six goals in the last four league matches began with a corner or free kick. Nicolás Capaldo's header against Köln came from an Albert Grönbaek corner, and Grönbaek scored from a corner in the May meeting between these sides. He is in the predicted line-up, though the team sheet is not confirmed. Albert Sambi Lokonga has returned to training, but his availability and likely minutes are uncertain. Even if the set-piece taker is available, missing Capaldo and Poulsen, both recent scorers from set pieces, affects their finishing options.
The substitutes could matter more in the second half. Polzin has recently changed games with goals and assists from players off the bench. Terem Moffi can add to the attack this time, but the squad will show how much use he can make of Patson Daka and Bakery Jatta, who have returned to training. Depending on his starting line-up, Hutter can bring on Can Uzun and Ansgar Knauff. Uzun has been left out of recent starts over his defensive contribution, but has scored twice in the league. If the match remains 0-0, bringing him on would give Hutter another option through the middle. If the visitors retreat too far, as they did in the second half against Dortmund, Hamburger SV will have more time to win set pieces and launch counters.
The opening goal will change where each side attacks. If Frankfurt score first, Hamburger SV will have to push forward, leaving space behind for the two forwards. If Hamburger SV strike first, the visitors will have to find a way through a deep defence as they did against Köln. A set piece gives Hamburger SV a route to take the lead, but they will also have to show they can keep possession and see out the match without Vieira and Poulsen. Hamburger SV failed to score in all three league matches they trailed at half-time this season, but those came before they changed their defensive approach. Those results do not tell us how the current side will respond if they concede first.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Eintracht Frankfurt to have more of the ball, but it may take time for them to find the opening goal. Hamburger SV's deep defence should limit the runs in behind from the two forwards, and Frankfurt have scored only once in their last two matches since changing shape. Even so, Hamburger SV will need to keep blocking passes into the forwards with Remberg and Nadir absent. Without Vieira and Poulsen, they also have fewer ways to connect a regain to an attack and finish it. If the game stays tight into the second half, Frankfurt's greater choice of substitutes could matter more.
The main difference between our view and the market is the expected number of goals. The odds appear to reflect the teams' goals conceded this season and the absences among Hamburger SV's defenders. But the back three that started their last match remains available, and the current absences affect midfield cover, attacking link-up and set-piece finishing more. Neither side has repeated its earlier heavy concessions since changing its approach during the season. We lean towards Frankfurt, but do not expect a high-scoring game to be the likeliest outcome.
Our predicted score is Hamburger SV 0-1 or 0-2 Eintracht Frankfurt. If the home side maintain their defensive shape, the visitors are more likely to find a late goal through a short central combination or a second-half substitute, then hold their lead. If Frankfurt score first and force Hamburger SV to commit more players forward, the two forwards can use the space that opens up to add another. This forecast depends on Hamburger SV keeping the deep defensive shape they used in their last match. If the new central pairing cannot hold its shape from the start, Frankfurt could find chances earlier and the expected pattern may change.
