This match puts Denver’s passing through the center against Los Angeles’ creation off guard screens. The opening groups have several scoring destinations, so the first defensive stop will often require dealing with a second action. The reserve stretches look especially important because Denver plans to build an attack without a staggered starter.
Jokić and Murray make the Clippers’ center choose between the ball and the space behind him, with Gordon cutting and Johnson providing an outside destination. Los Angeles has its own way to move the defense: Garland can shoot off a screen, find the rolling center or pass toward Hachimura on the next action. Garland recorded four assists against Toronto, while Hachimura supplied 14 points.
Strus’s injury removes movement shooting, and Lue’s latest update leaves Ingram away from a return. That puts more responsibility on the creators already in the rotation. Dunn delivered six assists in the last match and Wagler added nine points, giving the Clippers a reserve passing option and another finisher.
Denver’s plan gives Tyus Jones the screen action and DeRozan isolation possessions. My matchup read is that Dunn’s pressure can make those possessions work harder, while his distribution gives Los Angeles a way to answer at the other end. Chicago’s productive second quarter against Denver shows why the stretches between starter runs deserve attention.
I expect the opening contest to revolve around Jokić’s decisions and Garland’s screen game, with the substitutions offering Los Angeles its clearest opportunity to gain ground. I’m giving the Clippers’ separate scoring destinations and reserve distribution more weight than Denver’s stronger recent starter production. That’s why I’m siding with the Los Angeles Clippers to win.
