[2026–27 English Premier League] Hull City vs Brentford preview and analysis Kick-off: 25 October, 14:00 UTC
Hull City and Brentford meet at MKM Stadium on 25 October for the eighth round of the 2026–27 Premier League season. It is their first top-flight meeting. The sides are separated by one point, but Hull have kept things tight at home while Brentford have scored first in all seven league games. Brentford’s absences in midfield and both teams’ defeats last time out could shape how this one unfolds.
1. Match overview and team form
Hull City have two wins, three draws and two defeats from seven games, leaving them 11th on nine points. Brentford are seventh with 10 points after two wins, four draws and one defeat. Hull have scored eight and conceded seven. They have one win and two draws in three home games, with just two goals conceded. Brentford have scored 13, but all three of their league away matches have ended in draws despite taking the lead. One of two records will end here: Hull have yet to concede first at home, while Brentford have opened the scoring in every match.
League form this season Record after seven games: Hull City 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats / Brentford 2 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat Goals scored and conceded: Hull City 8 and 7 / Brentford 13 and 8 Home and away form: Hull City at home, 1 win and 2 draws, 4 goals scored and 2 conceded / Brentford away, 3 draws, 5 goals scored and 5 conceded
The two teams’ recent defeats came in different ways. Hull lost 1-0 away to Fulham without registering a shot on target, and the Data Center’s expected goals figure was just 0.16. Coach Sergej Jakirovic said his players were pushed off the ball in challenges without making enough physical contact themselves. Brentford took the lead against Liverpool through Keane Lewis-Potter, but Yehor Yarmolyuk was sent off in first-half stoppage time and they went on to lose. Vitaly Janelt was also dismissed late on. Brentford travel without the two midfielders who had been playing in front of their back four.
Hull’s six-match winless run in all competitions has included some very different performances. Against Newcastle United, they conceded twice early, then brought on Tim Iroegbunam and Mohamed-Ali Cho and pulled one back. Mohamed Belloumi scored an equaliser after a change in the 60th minute against Everton, too. At Fulham, though, taking off a defender at half-time and bringing on Iroegbunam did not improve their attack. For Jakirovic’s substitutions to make a difference, Hull first need to compete for the ball in midfield and get it forward to their attackers.
Brentford have scored first in all seven league games, but have failed to win five of them. At Leeds United, their opponents changed their defensive shape at half-time and then equalised. At Aston Villa, Brentford conceded soon after going ahead. A red card proved decisive against Liverpool. The reasons differ, but Brentford have not consistently limited opponents’ chances after taking the lead, something to watch again away from home. Across the six matches with expected-goals data, they scored 10 goals from 7.94 xG. Their strong finishing so far does not guarantee the same efficiency today.
The expected changes for both sides are concentrated in midfield and central defence. Hull centre-back Nobel Mendy is out, with Lucas Hey expected to keep the place he filled against Fulham. Mendy scored a header from a free kick against Manchester United, so Hull will also lose a target from set pieces. Brentford are expected to start Mamadou Sangaré and Mathias Jensen in midfield in place of the suspended Janelt and Yarmolyuk. If Jensen drops into a deeper role, Mikkel Damsgaard, recently back from injury, could play as the attacking midfielder. These are projected line-ups, not confirmed selections.
Jakirovic has generally kept a 5-4-1 defensive shape and made changes in midfield during games. Hull average 29% possession at home, but their three goals from winning the ball high up the pitch are a league high, according to Brentford’s club website on 21 October. Brentford use a 4-2-3-1 under Keith Andrews, creating chances through wide attacks and set pieces. Their set-piece expected goals average 0.5 per game this season, more than twice the stated league average of 0.229, according to The Hard Tackle on 24 October.
The sides last met in the Championship in February 2020, when Brentford won 5-1 away at Hull. The managers, squads and divisions have all changed, so that scoreline offers little guidance for this match. Hull have had no midweek game and can prepare for their next home match against Ipswich Town, while Brentford travel to Sunderland in the League Cup three days later. Andrews has not said he plans to rest players today, but the shortage of midfield cover could factor into his decisions on substitutions later in the game.
2. Match-up analysis
We expect Brentford to have more of the ball, with Hull setting up in a back five. The key moments may come when possession changes hands. Hull play 56 long balls per game looking for Ollie McBurnie. If he can hold the ball up, Regan Slater and Belloumi can compete for the second ball and move forward. McBurnie has yet to score in the league this season, but winning the first duel is an important part of this route to goal. If Brentford centre-back Kristoffer Ajer can keep him under control and Sangaré wins the second balls, Hull may struggle to build attacks during their limited spells in possession.
Sangaré’s role will affect Brentford in both phases. Away to Bournemouth, he won the ball in the opposition half to start the move for the opening goal. Today he will also need to stay in front of the back four and help stop Hull’s quick attacks while Jensen supplies passes. Brentford conceded an equaliser against Bournemouth after Ajer stopped the first break and the loose ball was won by the opposition. At Aston Villa, the opponents collected the ball after Aaron Hickey’s tackle and scored. Those moments do not mean the same thing is bound to happen with a new midfield pairing. They do show where Sangaré and Jensen will need to work together defensively, given Hull’s reliance on second balls.
If Brentford move the ball forward smoothly through midfield, Hull will face a different problem. Jensen can supply passes from deep, while Damsgaard can receive between the lines and link up with Igor Thiago. Hull were criticised against Fulham for failing to make enough contact with opponents who received the ball and turned. If Hull’s midfielders close down Damsgaard, they also have to watch Kevin Schade’s runs. If they hold their positions, Damsgaard has time to pick a pass and carry the ball forward. The question is whether the physical intensity Jakirovic demanded will show up in Hull’s defending this time.
The duel between Hull’s Belloumi on the right and Brentford’s left-back Lewis-Potter could also shape both teams’ attacks. Belloumi has scored three league goals and is active in defensive duels against players on the ball. If Lewis-Potter pushes forward, Belloumi can attack the space behind him. If Lewis-Potter keeps Belloumi in check while maintaining Brentford’s attacking width, Hull may have to start their counterattacks from deeper positions after winning the ball. Brentford’s attempts to stretch Hull’s back five with crosses will meet Hull’s counterattacks on the same flank.
Set pieces are Brentford’s most reliable way to create chances against a deep defence. Their opener against Chelsea came from a Damsgaard corner, and Jensen can also take set pieces. Hull scored twice from set pieces against Manchester United, but Mendy, who scored one of those goals, is out. If Hull increase the physicality, they may give Brentford free kicks. Hull can still call on Slater, Semi Ajayi and John Egan as set-piece targets, so that threat has not disappeared.
The difference in the teams’ options from the bench could matter after the break. Jakirovic kept his shape and made changes before Hull scored against Newcastle United and Everton. Cho is back, and Robinio Vaz has returned to training, giving Hull more attacking options. Brentford have attacking substitutes available, but Josh Dasilva, Kaye Furo and Antoni Milambo are out, leaving fewer ways to reinforce midfield. Moving Hickey into midfield has been discussed, though that has to be weighed against his role in defence. That is why Hull could still find a way back into the game even if they are behind at the hour mark.
3. Prediction and conclusion
We expect Brentford to have more possession and are more likely to score first. Jensen and Damsgaard give them a set-piece threat even against a Hull side that keeps numbers back. Hull have conceded few goals at home, but have not done enough to keep opponents from creating shooting chances. After Brentford take the lead, we expect Hull to stick with five defenders and look for an equaliser through McBurnie’s duels, high turnovers and second-half substitutions.
This view reflects the tactics, available players and game management. Hull’s second-ball attacks will target the space in front of a back four missing Janelt and Yarmolyuk. Jakirovic’s changes while keeping the shape helped Hull score in the second half against Newcastle United and Everton, and he can bring Cho back into the side today. Brentford have scored first in all three away matches but have not won any of them. This time they will also need a new midfield pairing to protect their lead.
The market gives Brentford a clear edge, pointing to their higher goal tally and run of opening the scoring, along with Hull’s winless streak. Those records support the view that Brentford could score first. We also need to account for the two missing midfielders’ role in clearing second balls after a goal and the attacking options Hull can use later in the game.
Our predicted score is 1-1, with Hull City at home. We expect Brentford to take the lead from a set piece before Hull fight back in the second half by winning second balls or turning the ball over high up the pitch. If Ajer keeps McBurnie under control throughout and Brentford avoid dangerous turnovers in midfield, Hull will have fewer ways to score and Brentford could instead win by a goal.
