[2026-27 German Bundesliga] TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview and analysis Kick-off: October 25, 14:30 UTC
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer 04 Leverkusen meet at the SNP Arena in Sinsheim at 14:30 UTC on October 25 for matchday 7 of the Bundesliga. The hosts sit 14th and are looking to turn back-to-back wins in all competitions into a climb up the league table. The visitors are fourth and have won six straight in all competitions, but they have conceded eight goals in their last three league away games.
1. Match overview and team form
There are seven points between the sides, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen lead in both the standings and recent results. To assess this matchup, though, we need to look at how Leverkusen have conceded away from home and how Hoffenheim attack.
Bundesliga this season Position and points: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 14th, 6 points / Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4th, 13 points Goals for and against in six games: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 11-14 / Bayer 04 Leverkusen 16-9 Goals for and against in the hosts' home and visitors' away games: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 6-7 / Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8-8
There has been a change in Hoffenheim's last two wins. Away to Borussia Mönchengladbach, Alexander Prass scored the winner just five minutes after Hoffenheim had conceded an equaliser. Against Olympique Lyon in the Europa League, they won the ball back in the opposition half and scored twice. Andrej Kramarić returned from a groin problem and started alongside Tim Lemperle against Lyon, linking the attack with a goal and two assists. There are caveats: Mönchengladbach were bottom of the league, while Lyon made wholesale changes to their starting lineup. Whether the pressing and attacking combinations that worked in those wins will also trouble this opponent is a separate question.
Hoffenheim's defence cannot be judged on the 14 goals conceded alone. In the five league matches this season for which the data centre has expected goals against figures, their xGA is 6.61, yet they have conceded 11. Deflections and long-range shots are not likely to keep producing goals at the same rate. By contrast, they have repeatedly been punished after failing to win the ball back following a corner clearance, and when defending crosses from wide areas. Eight of their 14 league goals conceded came after the 60th minute, and they took the lead before losing to Köln, Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV. The red card against Hamburger SV was a separate factor, so we cannot pin all three comebacks on the same cause.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have stuck with a 4-2-3-1 in the league under Carles Martinez. Aleix García plays forward passes through the middle, Ibrahim Maza links the attack, and Moussa Diaby and Afonso Moreira support Patrik Schick from the wings. Schick has scored in all six of his league appearances this season. Leverkusen have won all three home games and conceded just once, but away from home they have one win, one draw and one defeat, with eight goals conceded. Against Elversberg, a misplaced pass out from the back led to a goal. At Augsburg and Mainz, they conceded from corners or the ensuing phases.
Both teams return to action three days after winning in the Europa League on Thursday. Eight of Hoffenheim's starting 11 against Lyon had also started their previous league match. Leverkusen made five changes from their previous league lineup for the game against OFI Crete. Four substitutes came on in the second half, and the trip to Crete also took its toll, so we cannot call it a full rest. Still, several players expected to start today played fewer minutes on Thursday than Hoffenheim's key players. Both teams also have DFB-Pokal matches in three days.
Absences and selection choices affect how both teams attack. Hoffenheim will be without Albian Hajdari, Patrik Wimmer and Nathan De Cat. Robin Hranáč and Ozan Kabak have handled central defence in recent games without Hajdari, but Wimmer's absence leaves fewer wide options off the bench. Ndjicoura Bomba's availability is uncertain. If he misses out, Fisnik Asllani or Adam Hložek could start in attack, but that would change Hoffenheim's ability to carry the ball forward from their own half. Leverkusen are missing Christian Kofane, Martin Terrier, Gera Doue and Eliesse Ben Seghir. Kofane's absence limits their option of adding another forward in the second half. They do have attacking midfield options in Jonas Hofmann and Malik Tillman, who both scored against OFI Crete recently.
Hoffenheim won both meetings last season. In January, they pressed early at home, took the lead with a free kick in the ninth minute and held on for a 1-0 win. Bayer 04 Leverkusen had a different manager then and had also suffered a heavy defeat in their previous league game. That result shows how Hoffenheim's pressing and set pieces can work against Leverkusen, but it does not mean today's match will end the same way.
2. Matchup analysis
The key early question is where Hoffenheim can disrupt Leverkusen's build-up through the middle. If Kramarić and Lemperle start up front as a pair, they can press Edmond Tapsoba and Facundo Medina directly. Leon Avdullahu and Prass can then block the passing lane into García, forcing Leverkusen to switch wide or play long. Hoffenheim turned central turnovers into goals against Lyon, while Leverkusen conceded after losing a pass out from the back at Elversberg. We should not attribute both early goals in that away game to the same mistake, though. A deflection off a defender also played a part in the opener.
If Leverkusen play through that pressure, the danger shifts to the other end. García started Schick's goal against Mainz with a forward pass through the middle, and Maza let the ball run for Schick to finish. If Hoffenheim's midfielders have joined the press, once Maza receives the ball the defence will have to track Schick as well as Diaby and Moreira advancing on the flanks. Hoffenheim have also conceded after losing the ball high up the pitch. Dortmund's consolation goal came after Avdullahu lost possession in a more advanced position than his own half. The chance to win the ball high and the danger of being played through the press can arise in the same sequence.
Even if Hoffenheim cannot turn a high press into an immediate shot, they can keep attacking through set pieces. Wout Weghorst's long throw started their opener against Lyon, and his corners have also led to goals this season. Leverkusen conceded a headed goal from a corner at Augsburg and another after a corner broke down at Mainz. If Hoffenheim win the ball often in the opposition half, Wout Weghorst could have more chances to put the ball into the box. Leverkusen's Jarell Quansah can also score from a corner, though. Hoffenheim have failed to regain possession after clearing set pieces in several games this season.
On the flank, Wout Weghorst's forward runs will come up against Moreira's advances. When Weghorst pushes forward on the right, Hoffenheim can earn crosses and throw-ins, but if they lose the ball, Moreira can attack the space behind him. At the other end, Bomba could target the space left behind Leverkusen left-back Miguel Gutiérrez when he moves forward. Gutiérrez assisted Schick with a cross against RB Leipzig and scored himself. Against Mainz, however, the defence on his side was exposed in a goal. If Bomba plays, Hoffenheim can carry the ball down the right after winning it back. If he is absent, Asllani or Hložek may make more runs in behind.
Once Leverkusen reach the penalty area, Schick's finishing will test Hoffenheim's defence. He has scored from a Gutiérrez cross, a Maza cutback and a pass through the middle. Hoffenheim conceded twice to crosses from wide areas against Paderborn and also allowed a second-half cross to be headed in for an equaliser against Hamburger SV. The moves began differently, but the defence faces the same task of stopping the attacker who gets on the end of the final ball. Hoffenheim can limit the service to Schick by intercepting passes high up the pitch, but if Leverkusen play through the press more often, the defenders' positioning will matter even more.
In the second half, Thursday's minutes and the available substitutions will come into play. If Hoffenheim's players who started again on Thursday log heavy minutes today too, they may struggle to maintain the same pressing intensity. Leverkusen have seen Schick come off the bench to score a 89th-minute equaliser against Augsburg and a 76th-minute winner against Freiburg. We cannot assume Hoffenheim's late goals conceded are down to fatigue alone. The opposition's attacking substitutions, turnovers high up the pitch and the red card against Hamburger SV all created different conditions. If Hoffenheim take the lead today, Ilzer's choice between keeping attackers on the pitch and closing the gaps before countering, as they did in January, will matter as much as the difference in minutes played.
3. Final view and conclusion
We favour a 1-3 away win for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, with 2-3 also a plausible scoreline. Hoffenheim can score with an early press or a set piece from Wout Weghorst. Leverkusen should respond by creating chances for Schick through García and Maza or from wide areas. If Hoffenheim fall behind and add more attackers, the likeliest route to a wider margin is Moreira and Diaby attacking the space behind the advancing defenders between the 60th and 75th minutes. If Leverkusen go two goals ahead and Hoffenheim pull one back from a set piece by Wout Weghorst, the score could finish 2-3.
This outlook is based on the teams' attacking routes and how they manage their players. Hoffenheim's press and set pieces match the ways Leverkusen have conceded in league away games, but we do not know whether Hoffenheim's players who started in consecutive matches can keep pressing into the second half. Leverkusen's wide passing and Schick's finishing target the cross defence that has repeatedly cost Hoffenheim goals. Ilzer has also added attackers when chasing games, which could leave Leverkusen space for second-half counterattacks.
The market gives Leverkusen the edge while also taking Hoffenheim's home advantage and their two wins in last season's meetings into account. Our point of difference is the margin of victory, rather than which side wins. Even if Hoffenheim's early approach leads to a goal, we think the minutes played by their regular starters and their tendency to add attackers when trailing will favour Leverkusen adding another goal later on. This outlook depends on those conditions: if Hoffenheim score first and keep their defensive shape before countering as they did in January, or if changes to today's lineups narrow the gap in second-half minutes, the key premise no longer holds.
