[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Atalanta BC vs Frosinone preview and analysis Kick-off: October 25, 14:00 UTC
Atalanta BC and Frosinone meet at New Balance Arena in Bergamo on October 25 at 23:00 Korea time for the eighth round of the 2026-27 Italian Serie A season. After losing back-to-back away games, Atalanta BC will look to climb back into the top half at home, while promoted Frosinone aim to hold on to sixth place. Frosinone sit higher in the table, but the match may be decided by how Atalanta BC build from the back against Frosinone’s press.
1. Match overview and team form
Atalanta BC have 3 wins and 4 losses from seven league games, leaving them 11th on 9 points. Frosinone are sixth with 13 points after 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. A win would take Atalanta BC to 12 points and put a return to the top half within reach. Frosinone coach Massimiliano Alvini has said the team’s goal is to stay in Serie A, though their current form gives them a chance to remain in the hunt near the top of the table.
Serie A after seven games this season Record: Atalanta BC 3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses / Frosinone 4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses Goals for and against: Atalanta BC 10-11 / Frosinone 13-9 Position and points: Atalanta BC 11th, 9 points / Frosinone 6th, 13 points
Atalanta BC have won 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 competitive matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. They have won 4 and lost 1 of their five home games in that run, compared with 1 win and 4 losses away. Their home record alone is not enough to make them favourites here. Their home wins came against Sassuolo, Bologna, Venezia and Conference League opponents Pafos, while they lost away to Roma, Juventus, AC Milan and Ajax. Even against Bologna, they were outshot 16-6 before a Lazar Samardžić long-range effort in stoppage time secured a 1-0 win.
There has been a change in Atalanta BC’s attack. Maurizio Sarri has moved from the 4-3-3 he mainly used early in the season to a 4-2-3-1 as his starting shape. Atalanta BC averaged 0.80 expected goals per game in their four competitive matches before the September international break, then 2.04 in the four after it. Venezia and Pafos featured in the latter run, so the increase cannot be attributed solely to the change in shape. Still, Atalanta BC recorded 1.65 xG away to AC Milan and fought back from 0-3 to 2-3. They are creating chances, though defensive problems have continued: they conceded seven goals in the four matches after the break.
Frosinone’s recent league form has been driven by their first-half goals. They have scored 10 of their 13 goals in the opening half, and went on to win 4 and draw 1 of the five games in which they led at half-time. Antonio Raimondo leads the scoring charts with seven league goals, although all seven came in just three matches. When Raimondo has not scored, Kvernadze has helped out with his dribbling on the left, while Giacomo Calò has made runs from midfield. Against Sassuolo last time out, Frosinone won the ball high up the pitch to score the opener, then claimed a 4-2 win with Raimondo’s hat-trick.
Frosinone’s sixth-place standing does not mean they have been solid defensively. In the five league matches this season for which the data centre has expected-goals figures, Frosinone have conceded at least 1.88 xG in every game. Their xGA total was 11.21, but they conceded only eight goals. Lorenzo Palmisani made seven saves against Como, and Genoa missed a penalty, among the moments that helped keep their goals-against total down. Atalanta BC have also averaged 1.95 xGA per game across the six league matches with expected-goals data. The sample sizes differ, so the totals cannot be compared directly, but neither side has consistently limited opponents’ chances.
The squad situation and recovery time favour Frosinone. Atalanta BC played away to Ajax on the night of October 22 local time and are back in action roughly 67 hours later. With Scalvini, Kossounou, Hien and Kolasinac out, Thomas Christensen and Relja Obrić are expected to start at centre-back. They have started together just once, against Ajax. Atalanta BC have no first-team centre-back available to replace either of them in that position. Kessié and Raspadori are also absent, affecting the midfield options and Sarri’s ability to change the attacking shape during the match. Frosinone have had nine days off since the Sassuolo game, and the only player omitted from their squad for this match is Grillić, who is not part of the regular league starting group.
Recent head-to-head results offer little help in judging the teams now. Frosinone won 2-1 at home in 2023-24, while Atalanta BC won 5-0 in Bergamo. The managers and squads have changed since then. Both games saw one side take a two-goal lead within the first 25 minutes, which makes the opening spell worth watching, but those results do not point to a scoreline for this match.
2. Matchup analysis
Sarri wants his side to keep the ball and build attacks from the back. Frosinone press high when opponents try to play out with short passes, then look to shoot quickly after winning the ball. For their opener against Sassuolo, Patrizio Masini won possession inside the opposition penalty area and Calò finished the move. Atalanta BC have also struggled to play through pressure from Bologna, Juventus and AC Milan this season. This time, Christensen and Obrić will need to start the build-up with the usual first-choice centre-backs unavailable.
The success of Frosinone’s press will not depend on the two centre-backs alone. If Éderson and Gaetano or Pašalić receive the ball close to the centre-backs and carry it forward, Atalanta BC can find De Ketelaere behind Frosinone’s midfield. Lookman or Elmas can then run in behind, with Bellanova joining the attack from the right. If the midfielders cannot find space to receive the ball, the centre-backs may have to play forward under pressure. A turnover in that situation would put Frosinone closer to the Atalanta BC goal. Sarri’s decision to add a midfielder with a 4-3-3 or stick with the recent 4-2-3-1 will also shape this battle.
Frosinone will leave space to exploit if their press fails. Alvini has said that pressing high means accepting one-on-one situations across the pitch. Frosinone have given up plenty of chances in all five league games with xG data this season. Atalanta BC have Bellanova delivering low crosses from the right and Krstović ready to finish them. Their second goal against AC Milan came from that link-up. If De Ketelaere and the other attacking midfielders run in behind a high defensive line, Frosinone’s press could create chances for Atalanta BC instead.
At the other end, Raimondo will test Atalanta BC’s new centre-back pairing. He can attack crosses with his head and react to passes cut back after Kvernadze drives down the left. Obrić was beaten in a duel with Arokodare after a long pass against Ajax, and the move led to the winning goal. If Frosinone win the ball and play quickly into Raimondo, Christensen and Obrić may have to defend the duel before they can get their shape in order. Éderson can reduce that danger by screening the passing lanes in front of the back line.
Bellanova and Kvernadze’s positions are linked, too. Bellanova’s forward runs strengthen Atalanta BC’s attack on the right, but the space behind him is available for Kvernadze to counter into. If Kvernadze tracks Bellanova back, Frosinone lose some of their left-sided threat and their cutbacks to Raimondo. Which team can force the other’s player to take up a defensive position first could affect how often each side attacks.
Key matchups Build-up against the press: Atalanta BC need their two-man midfield to receive the first pass and move forward / Frosinone will look to win the ball high and attack quickly Right and left flanks: Atalanta BC can push Bellanova forward and look for low deliveries / Frosinone can use Kvernadze’s dribbling and counter-attacks
If the game remains close into the second half, the difference in recovery time and substitutes could matter. Atalanta BC have conceded at least five of the 14 goals in their last 10 competitive matches after the 85th minute. Centre-backs and midfielders who started against Ajax are expected to play again, and there is no first-team centre-back available to replace them in the same position. Frosinone can bring on attacking options such as Zerbin, Birligea and Babchek. Their league second-half goal difference this season is 3-4, though, so the longer rest alone does not guarantee an advantage after the break.
3. Final view and prediction
Atalanta BC have routes to score at home. Their chance creation has improved since the recent change in shape, and Frosinone have allowed chances behind their defensive line while pressing high. But Frosinone can also target Atalanta BC’s build-up and centre-back pairing. We expect Frosinone to strike first, Atalanta BC to chase an equaliser, and Frosinone to score again late on.
The market favours Atalanta BC on the strength of their home record and overall team rating. Frosinone’s tendency to allow opponents plenty of chances applies here, too. The point we see differently is the likelihood of Atalanta BC conceding. Clean sheets in previous meetings in Bergamo and Frosinone’s failure to score against strong teams do not tell us much about Atalanta BC’s centre-back pairing today. We give more weight to Frosinone’s well-rested players pressing against a defence whose centre-backs have started together just once, with Raimondo also in the lineup.
Our score prediction is 1-3 or 2-3, with Atalanta BC at home. We expect Frosinone to take the lead in the first half by winning the ball and finding Raimondo, while Atalanta BC look to respond through Bellanova’s attacks down the right and runs from midfield. If Atalanta BC add more attackers while trailing, Kvernadze could find space behind Bellanova on the counter, leaving Atalanta BC short of options to shore things up late on. This outlook would change if Sarri adds a midfielder to steady the first pass and Atalanta BC score first. In that case, Frosinone would keep pushing forward and Atalanta BC’s attacking midfielders could find further chances behind the defensive line.
