[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Athletic Club vs Getafe preview and analysis Kick-off: October 25, 13:00 UTC
Athletic Club and Getafe meet at San Mamés in La Liga’s 10th round on October 25 at 13:00 UTC. Both teams have 9 points and sit one point clear of the relegation zone. Athletic are looking to end a four-match winless run, while Getafe are chasing their first away goal and first point in the league this season.
1. Match overview and team form
In the league table on October 24, Athletic Club were 15th after playing 8 matches, while Getafe were 16th after 9. Athletic have yet to play their postponed away match against Rayo Vallecano. The teams have played different numbers of games, but either could start the next round just above the relegation zone with a defeat here.
2026-27 La Liga Position and points: Athletic Club 15th, 9 points / Getafe 16th, 9 points Goals for and against: Athletic Club 8 and 9 / Getafe 5 and 11 Home record: Athletic Club 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss / Getafe 2 wins, 3 draws Away record: Athletic Club 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses / Getafe 4 losses
Athletic went 29 days without a competitive match after facing Alavés on September 19, then played away at Valencia and Levante in quick succession. They drew 0-0 with Valencia and lost 3-1 to Levante. This is their first home game since September 19. Getafe face four matches in a short span, starting with their trip to Universitatea Craiova on October 16, followed by Rayo Vallecano and Lugano before this visit to San Mamés. Several regulars either rested or played only after half-time against Lugano, though, so we should not assume the schedule has left today’s starters tired.
Athletic’s four-match winless run has not been down to a lack of chances. Across those four games with expected-goals data, they posted 6.50 xG but scored just twice. They had 73 shots, with 15 on target. At home, they drew 1-1 with Elche and 0-0 with Alavés. Of their 23 shots against Alavés, 15 came from outside the penalty area. When opponents crowded the middle, Athletic struggled to turn possession and shots into chances inside the box.
Coach Edin Terzic wants his side to keep the ball and use more positional play, but their wins over Celta Vigo and Atlético Madrid this season came from quick attacks after winning possession back. If Getafe pack players into their defensive third, Athletic will have less of the counterattacking space they found in those matches. Possession alone does not make a goal likely.
Getafe’s problem is more about creating chances than finishing them. They have scored 5 goals in 9 league matches and lost all 4 away games without scoring. In the 6 league matches with expected-goals data, their combined xG is 3.42. At home, they have taken all 9 of their points and conceded just 3 goals across 5 games. José Bordalás’s side have kept matches tight with an organised league defence, but away from home they have not kept up the same level of control at either end. Their 5-2 loss to Lugano in the Conference League also needs context: several league regulars were rested for that match.
Key absences for both sides affect how they connect defence to attack.
Team Athletic Club: Key absences Aymeric Laporte, Oihan Sancet, Gorka Guruzeta / Expected impact: changes to forward passing from the back, the central link and the centre-forward setup Getafe: Key absences Djene, Zaïd Romero, Orbelín Pineda / Expected impact: a new central-defensive pairing and fewer midfield options off the bench
Laporte is suspended after his red card against Levante. Sancet and Guruzeta are out injured. Peio Canales is expected to take Sancet’s central role, while Iñaki Williams or Maroan Sannadi could lead the line. Nico Williams came on late against Levante, but it is unclear whether he will start. Getafe must put together a defence without their two regular centre-backs, Djene and Romero. Jean Ives Valou is expected to feature, though there is no clear consensus on whether Bordalás will start with four or five defenders.
Athletic have drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 La Liga meetings with Getafe at San Mamés. Getafe won 1-0 at San Mamés and 2-0 at home last season. Athletic were coached by Ernesto Valverde then, and Getafe cannot use the same centre-back pairing and midfield combination they had at the time. Rather than focusing on those results, we should look at how Bordalás limited Athletic’s main attacking routes.
2. Matchup analysis
Athletic’s possession and Getafe’s defensive positioning are likely to shape the game. Bordalás has used either four or five defenders depending on the opponent, switching between a high press and a deeper defensive block. After last season’s win at San Mamés, he said his side had doubled up on Nico Williams and blocked the space where Sancet received the ball behind midfield. Sancet is absent today, leaving Getafe with one fewer central route to watch. The players who helped contain Nico then have also changed.
Terzic has used Johaneko Louis Jean on the right because he does not want Athletic’s attack to become too focused on the left, where opponents can load up defensively. If Nico Williams starts, Getafe will need to commit players to his one-on-one threat on the left while also dealing with Jean and Hugo Rincón on the right. If Nico does not start, Getafe will find it easier to spread their defensive cover across both flanks. Either way, Athletic need to beat their marker out wide and find a player in the box with a cross or cutback. If blocked crosses and shots from outside the box keep piling up, as they did against Elche and Alavés, possession will count for less.
Getafe’s new centre-back pairing will have to deal with those crosses. Jean Ives Valou, who is expected to play in place of Djene and Romero, made mistakes in the build-up to goals conceded against Craiova and Lugano. Dani Carvajal was also criticised for struggling to track the opposition’s wide attacks against Rayo Vallecano. Still, we should not treat the 5 goals conceded against Lugano as a preview of how today’s defence will perform. Even if Athletic find good positions out wide, their forwards have yet to score in the league this season, so the finishing concern remains. Starting Robert Navarro as a second striker would give them another player in the box, but that is not a confirmed lineup choice.
At the other end, Getafe’s press could target an Athletic defence without Laporte. Against Levante, Athletic lost the ball while playing through the middle and then failed to clear it after winning it back, leading to a goal. If Getafe win possession in the opposition half, they could create the close-range shooting chances they have lacked away from home. Bordalás also highlighted the high press and regaining the ball in the opposition half after last season’s win at San Mamés. But pushing the defensive line up to press could leave space behind for Athletic to attack, as they did against Celta Vigo and Atlético Madrid. Where Getafe choose to start their press could change the chances available to both teams.
Set pieces are another possible route for Getafe to end their away scoring drought. Against Málaga, they created headed chances from Ramón Terrats’s crosses and corners, with Enes Ünal also getting a shot away in those situations. Ünal injured his ankle against Lugano but completed full training and was named in the squad for this match. Athletic will face him with a new centre-back pairing in Laporte’s absence. Ünal is not confirmed to start, so the importance of this route depends on the attacking lineup.
The teams’ options from the bench could also matter as the match goes on. Athletic can bring on wide and attacking players who do not start. Getafe have only 4 midfielders listed in the squad, so their options in the middle could be limited depending on the starting lineup. That does not mean Athletic are certain to score late. Bordalás changed the game with half-time substitutions against Rayo Vallecano, helping his side come back to draw. Athletic also scored 3 times in the second half after a 0-0 first half against Atlético Madrid, but failed to score after the same half-time score against Alavés.
If Athletic score first, Getafe will need an attacking response they have not shown away from home this season. Pushing forward would also leave them needing to deal with Athletic’s counterattacks. If Getafe score first, Athletic will chase the game with more possession, but they could leave themselves open to counters after pressing aggressively, as they did against Levante. If the game stays goalless, Bordalás’s defensive approach could prove effective, though we will have to see whether the changed centre-back pairing and limited midfield options can sustain it.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Athletic to have more of the ball and create chances from both flanks. But without Sancet to link play through the middle or Guruzeta up front, they could take time to find a way through Getafe’s defence. Getafe are more likely to look for chances by winning the ball in Athletic’s defensive third or from set pieces than by keeping the ball for long spells.
The overseas market has strongly favoured a home win, pointing to Athletic’s home advantage, Getafe’s away scoring drought and Athletic’s xG edge. Getafe’s lack of away chances remains a valid concern. However, Athletic’s home matches against teams that crowd the middle are among those where their xG advantage has not translated into goals. Getafe’s heavy defeat to Lugano also does not tell us much about the form of the league regulars expected to play today. The gap between the market and our view is less about Getafe’s chance of winning than about whether Athletic can turn a dominant performance into a victory.
Our score prediction is Athletic Club 1-1 Getafe or 0-0. We think the likelier scenario is a late goal for Athletic after a wide attack, with Getafe replying from a set piece or a turnover in the opposition half against a defence without Laporte. If neither side takes its chance, the match could end 0-0. Athletic have struggled to turn possession into goals against deep defences, Getafe have created few chances away from home, and both teams are missing players who would normally fill key attacking roles. This outlook would change if Getafe’s new defence cannot deal with Athletic’s wide attacks in the first half. If Athletic take an early lead and Getafe push forward, the home side could add a second on the counter.
