[2026-27 English Premier League] Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion preview Kick-off: October 25, 14:00 UTC
Liverpool and Brighton & Hove Albion meet at Anfield on October 25 at 14:00 UTC in the eighth round of the 2026-27 Premier League season. Brighton are four points ahead, but overseas odds make Liverpool favourites. Whether Liverpool can play through Brighton’s press and get the ball to their forwards, and whether either side can protect a lead after scoring first, will help explain the gap between the league table and the odds.
1. Match overview and team form
Brighton have 16 points from seven league matches, with five wins, one draw and one defeat, putting them third. Their 23 goals are the most in the league, while their five goals conceded match Arsenal’s league low. Liverpool are fifth on 12 points, with three wins, three draws and one defeat. Both teams rested some regular starters in midweek European fixtures. Liverpool had five days after their match against Villarreal, while Brighton had three after travelling to Jablonec in the Czech Republic.
League this season Position and points: Liverpool 5th, 12 points / Brighton & Hove Albion 3rd, 16 points Goals for and against: Liverpool 9 for, 8 conceded / Brighton & Hove Albion 23 for, 5 conceded At home and away, respectively: Liverpool at home 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat / Brighton & Hove Albion away 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat
Liverpool’s winless home league record has several causes. Their 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest was influenced by a penalty that was later ruled a mistake. Against Fulham, a 0-0 draw, they managed only three shots on target. The 0-3 defeat to Manchester City was still 0-0 until the 62nd minute, but Gravenberch’s red card was followed by goals in the 65th, 68th and 78th minutes. Liverpool have won both of their home Champions League matches and their EFL Cup match under the same manager, so we should be careful about drawing conclusions from three league games alone.
Their attack and defence have both changed recently. Liverpool scored 12 goals and conceded seven across three straight wins after the Manchester City match. Against Brentford, they trailed 0-1 at half-time before Munoz and Isak scored to turn it around. Against Villarreal, problems with playing out from the back and space behind the defence left them 0-2 down early on. They brought Wirtz on after the break and changed Gravenberch’s position, then won 4-3. Andoni Iraola’s in-game adjustments worked, but Liverpool still conceded after taking the lead.
Brighton have won their last four league matches without conceding. Against Arsenal, they pressed the defenders and goalkeeper during short build-up passes, won the ball back and claimed a 3-0 victory. Away to Sunderland, they brought on an extra defender after going down to 10 men and held on for a 2-0 win. Against Crystal Palace, they were 3-0 up after 10 minutes and went on to win 5-0. Their recent results show they can create chances with pressure and tighten up after taking the lead. Still, Palace’s early own goal and a 51.3-metre strike need to be kept in mind when assessing the five-goal scoreline.
Brighton’s expected goals across five league matches were 9.70, while their actual tally was 16. Their expected goals against in those matches were 6.92, but they conceded only once, according to the Data Centre. That sample excludes the away match at Chelsea, where they conceded four. Brighton have created good chances consistently, but that does not mean their recent scoring and clean-sheet run will continue today. Liverpool’s expected goals across their five league matches in the same data set were just 1.20 per game. How many chances they can create against this opponent will matter.
Liverpool’s absences are concentrated on the right. Attack-minded right-backs Frimpong and Bradley are out, as is Szoboszlai with a hamstring injury. Szoboszlai has also handled set pieces and filled in at right-back, as well as playing in midfield. Araujo is expected to start at right-back, though Iraola has said Gravenberch could also play there. Isak, Wirtz and Barcola were left out of the starting line-up against Villarreal in midweek to prepare for this match. Ngumoha and Gakpo are also options on the flank, either from the start or off the bench.
For Brighton, Mitoma, Ferguson, Cimas and Aziz are out. Reports differ on whether Minteh and Wieffer will be available, while Strahinja will be assessed based on his training. No major changes are expected to the side that delivered recent clean-sheet wins in the league. Gross and Boscagli started against Jablonec three days ago, though, and attacking options Rutter, Osman and Hinshelwood also featured. The difference in rest could affect Brighton’s press and their substitutions later in the match.
The Anfield head-to-head record favours Liverpool. Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton have lost both of their league visits to Anfield and their FA Cup visit, scoring once across those three games. Arne Slot was Liverpool’s manager at the time. Ekitike, who scored in last season’s 2-0 Anfield win, and Salah, who set up the other goal from a corner, are both unavailable for this match. The record tells us how Brighton have fared at Anfield, but it does not show that today’s Liverpool attack can score in the same way.
Strong winds could also play a part on matchday. The Met Office’s yellow warning for Merseyside includes the 14:00 local kick-off. If the forecast winds arrive, both teams could struggle to maintain accuracy with long passes and high crosses. That would affect Liverpool’s option of playing long balls to Isak to get around the press, as well as Brighton’s long-ball attacks.
2. Match-up analysis
The key contest is between Liverpool’s build-up from the back and Brighton’s high press. Against Arsenal, Brighton blocked short passing lanes, forced long balls and won possession back. They also lead the league for recoveries in the final third. Liverpool conceded early against Villarreal after a weak Van Dijk header pass and space opened up behind the defence. If Brighton win the ball in Liverpool’s half, Gross, Ayari and Kostoulas could combine at close range to attack.
The same situation could work the other way. When Gross steps forward to press Gravenberch, Liverpool could play through the pressure and find Wirtz in the space behind him. If Wirtz receives the ball facing forward, Isak’s movement in the box and Barcola’s runs down the flank could create chances. Isak scored against Bournemouth after a low cross found him in the box, then netted the winner against Brentford from a teammate’s knockdown. Liverpool need to find a way to deliver the ball accurately to their forwards.
Liverpool’s right flank will be tested in attack and defence. While Barcola takes on Brighton left-back Boscagli, De Cuyper will look for space behind Liverpool’s right-back. If Araujo moves forward to support Barcola, he will need to cover the space behind him. If he stays back, more of the attacking burden falls on Barcola. Playing Gravenberch at right-back would give Liverpool another player who can carry the ball, but someone else would have to take his place in midfield. The absences of Frimpong and Szoboszlai make Iraola’s selection more difficult.
After the first goal, each team will have a different problem to solve. Brighton scored first in all four of their recent league wins without conceding. Hurzeler has also shown against Sunderland that he can bring on another defender to protect a lead. Liverpool, though, have avoided defeat in both recent matches where they trailed at half-time, against Brentford and Nottingham Forest. They went ahead after the break against Brentford and Villarreal following half-time adjustments. If Brighton score first, Gross and Boscagli, who both played three days ago, and their substitutes will have to deal with Liverpool’s second-half attack.
A Liverpool opener would not settle the match either. They led LASK 3-0 at half-time before conceding three goals in the second half, and conceded again after going 4-2 up against Villarreal. Brighton scored eight of their 10 goals in three away league matches this season after the break. It is a small sample of just three games, but it offers a path back into the match if Liverpool struggle to manage a lead. If Brighton’s press fades in the second half, Liverpool’s better-rested wide substitutes could find ways through the defence again.
Set pieces could change how either side scores. Liverpool have allowed at least five corners in each of their last three home matches, while Brighton have won at least five corners in three straight games, according to SportsGambler on October 24. Szoboszlai, Liverpool’s main set-piece taker, is out. Corner counts alone do not tell us whether a team will score, though. If the strong winds persist, the delivery and the defenders’ ability to deal with aerial balls could both suffer, so the actual conditions and each side’s response will matter.
3. Final view and prediction
Our predicted score is Liverpool 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion. Both teams can create scoring chances through their press, but whichever side scores first will still have to deal with a response. Brighton could take the lead by disrupting Liverpool’s build-up. Liverpool could play through the press to find Wirtz and Isak, or bring on wide players in the second half to level. If Liverpool score first, Brighton can hit back by winning the ball high up the pitch and earning corners.
Liverpool have conceded after taking the lead in recent matches, while Brighton’s last four league wins without conceding all came after they scored first. Iraola’s half-time adjustments give Liverpool a way back if they fall behind, while Brighton’s shorter rest makes it harder to respond to those changes in the second half. If the strong winds arrive as forecast, long passes and high crosses from both sides could also lose accuracy. Taken together, these conditions make an equaliser more likely than one team adding to its lead to pull away.
The market leans towards a Liverpool win on the strength of Anfield, the return of Liverpool’s forwards and the past results between these teams at the ground. Liverpool’s attacking options are back and they have had more time to rest, which applies to this match too. But the managers and goalscorers from those past meetings have changed, and Liverpool have struggled to protect leads recently. We see Liverpool as capable of scoring, but less likely to win than the market suggests. Our view would change if Brighton’s press drops off in the second half, allowing Liverpool to hold onto an early lead or add a second goal.
