[2026-27 Serie A] Genoa vs Venezia Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 25, 14:00 UTC
Genoa and Venezia meet in Serie A Matchday 8 at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa on October 25 at 14:00 UTC. Seventeenth-placed Genoa and bottom-placed Venezia are separated by one point. Both sides face a top-half opponent four days later, so the points from this game matter a lot.
1. Match Overview and Team News
Genoa have 4 points from 7 league games (1 win, 1 draw, 5 losses), and Venezia have 3 points (1 win, 6 losses). All of Genoa's points came at home. Venezia have lost all 3 of their away games, and no away fans will be admitted to this one. Genoa coach Daniele De Rossi described Venezia as a direct rival. Venezia coach Davide Nicola acknowledged Genoa's quality but said his team has the means to compete.
First 7 league games Position and points: Genoa 17th, 4 points / Venezia 20th, 3 points Record: Genoa 1W 1D 5L / Venezia 1W 6L Goals for and against: Genoa 5 scored, 13 conceded / Venezia 6 scored, 16 conceded At this game's venue: Genoa at home 1W 1D 2L / Venezia away 3L
Genoa's problem is a lack of chances. In the 6 league games this season for which the data provider calculated expected goals, they had 5.71 xG and scored 5 goals. In their last 10 league games of last season they managed only 7. The goal shortage has carried on under De Rossi. Against Fiorentina at home, though, they pressed high from the first whistle and scored twice inside 15 minutes. Osmajic and the players behind him, Messias and El Shaarawy, created chance after chance. Genoa held on to those 2 goals for their first win of the season, then lost 2-0 away at Roma. Their second-half xG against Roma was 0.13.
Venezia, promoted from Serie B, lost their first 6 league games, then beat Napoli 1-0 in Nicola's first match in charge. Before the change they kept the ball for long spells and committed extra players forward, but they often conceded to forward passes and high balls. Against Napoli, Nicola tightened the spacing, dropped back to the edge of the box and played long balls to Adams that bypassed midfield. The winner came from a long ball by Sohm, with Adams challenging a defender. Venezia's expected goals against that day was 2.44, though. Stankovic made several saves, including a penalty save, so the clean sheet alone does not show a settled defence. The evidence for the new approach is also just one home game.
Genoa are without Sou and right wing-back Ehizibue, who were not called up. With Sou out, they need a new corner taker, after his corner set up Vasquez's equaliser against Frosinone. De Rossi said Traorè will start in midfield. Colombo, who has been the link in attack, was recovering from an ankle injury and also had stomach illness symptoms. He is in the squad, but his availability is uncertain. Baldanzi also had stomach illness symptoms, so whether he starts behind Osmajic is undecided. For Venezia, one spot in the back three may change depending on Moreno's condition. Busio, who carries the ball through the middle to the forwards, is back in training, but whether he starts has not been decided.
In the last 9 league meetings at the Ferraris, Genoa are unbeaten, with 6 wins and 3 draws. Most of that record was built by other squads and coaches, though. We would not use it to explain today's strength. It is only useful as a sign that the two sides have stayed level at Genoa for a long time. Genoa's home wins in 2022/23 and 2024/25 were both decided in the last 10 minutes.
2. Matchup Analysis
Genoa's best attacking display, against Fiorentina, started from the opponent's short passes at the back. When Osmajic and the two attacking midfielders pressed high, Fiorentina's handling of the ball became shaky and Genoa created chances quickly. If Venezia play straight to Adams and Yeboah from the defenders or Sohm, as they did against Napoli, things change. Genoa then get fewer chances to press the back passes and win the ball. Nicola has said he will choose between direct play and short build-up depending on the opponent. Given his first game, Venezia may well get over Genoa's press with long balls.
That choice has a cost for Venezia too. If they drop to the edge of the box, support arrives late even when Adams and Yeboah receive the ball against Genoa's back three. Venezia's xG against Napoli was 0.63. Adams scored the winner, but from that deep position they did not create many chances. On the other hand, if Venezia push wing-backs and midfielders forward to support the two strikers, Genoa get space to attack after winning the ball. Where Nicola sets the defensive line away from home changes the number of chances for both teams.
The duel between Adams and Genoa's defenders is how Venezia can score from few chances. Genoa conceded after allowing one-on-one runs by Romero and Almqvist against Parma, and by Kvernadze against Frosinone. Adams scored against Napoli by winning his challenge with Rrahmani, and in earlier games he made chances with shots from outside the box and runs in behind. If Genoa's defenders cannot stop Adams when he turns, one direct ball can become a shot. If Venezia drop deep, however, Adams gets little support even when he wins the duel, so fewer of those moments turn into shots.
When Genoa have long spells of possession, the players behind Osmajic must receive the ball between Venezia's three midfielders and the back three. If Baldanzi starts, he can receive between the lines and finish. If Messias plays, the thing to watch is him beating a defender on the flank and shooting or crossing. Even if De Rossi picks an attack similar to the Fiorentina game, the opponent's response may be different. If Venezia settle into a compact shape, Genoa's passes will struggle to reach the box. Genoa also had more of the ball against Parma but produced only 0.7 xG.
In that case Genoa's remaining routes to goal are crosses from the flanks and set pieces. Vasquez finished a corner at the near post against Frosinone. Before the coaching change, Venezia conceded from high balls against Frosinone and Atalanta. Against Napoli they gave away 12 corners without conceding, but if Genoa create the same situation many times, the aerial duels involving Vasquez and Ostigard become important. With Sou out, the change of corner taker is a variable for Genoa.
Venezia's wide play will test the defending of Genoa's left wing-back. There was a goal where Haps crossed from the left and right wing-back Hainaut ran in at the far post to score. If De Rossi plays El Shaarawy at left wing-back, Genoa can add an extra attacker, but El Shaarawy then has to deal with Hainaut's forward runs and far-post movement. If Puczka plays there, he can concentrate on defending that spot, and El Shaarawy can attack from behind Osmajic. On the other side, Ellertsson, expected to replace Ehizibue at right wing-back, must deal with Haps's crosses. From the moment Haps delivers the ball until Hainaut arrives at the far post, both of Genoa's wing-backs have to respond.
The change after the first goal also matters. Against Fiorentina, Genoa dropped their line after going ahead and protected the lead, but in the second half they conceded an own goal and had to clear a ball off the line. If Venezia score first, Nicola can sit in front of the box as he did against Napoli. Genoa have not won a league game this season after trailing at half-time, and today Colombo, who has linked play when they chase games, is a doubt. If Genoa score early, Venezia will have to commit more players forward. Before the coaching change, Venezia had a game where they conceded again on the counter while chasing.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
We think Genoa will have more of the ball, but Venezia will most likely tighten their spacing, play direct to Adams and keep the game level. Genoa's early press works when Venezia build short, but Nicola has an option that skips it. Genoa have not created many chances against a settled defence, Sou is out and Colombo is a doubt, so their set pieces and second-half substitutions are also limited in how much they can change the attack. Venezia, for their part, will see Adams and Yeboah get supported less often if they defend deep.
The market made Genoa slight favourites, based on their home-only points, Venezia's three straight away defeats and the record at the Ferraris. Genoa have the home advantage, but that head-to-head record was not built by the current coaches and squads. For Genoa's edge to turn into goals, either the early press or the set pieces have to work. Because Venezia can avoid the press with long balls, we rate Genoa's chance of winning lower than the market does.
Our predicted score is Genoa 1-1 Venezia or 0-0. Even if one side goes ahead after a goalless spell, Genoa have set pieces to attack Venezia's defending of high balls and Venezia have crosses aimed at Genoa's flanks, so we lean more toward a 1-1 draw. If both sides fail to finish those chances, it could end 0-0. This outlook assumes Venezia keep their tight spacing away from home. If that spacing breaks down, or Genoa score early, Genoa may get more chances to add to their lead as Venezia push more players forward.
