Opening night in the NBA brings three home teams whose size and handling meet a visitor with a hole in exactly those places. Sacramento have no real centre behind Sabonis and lost their second ball handler days before the opener. Dallas arrive with a thin frontcourt and a turnover habit against a Houston side that already beat them on the glass with its starters. Golden State lean on Curry and three-point volume, but the creators and size behind him are missing.
Clippers against Kings: the Clippers now run through Garland with rookie Wagler, Jones Jr. and Hachimura on the wings and Jackson and Lopez at centre. That group already beat Denver by twelve while sharing the ball. Sacramento play through Sabonis and LaVine, but Cardwell and Raynaud are out, so when Sabonis rests it is Achiuwa alone in the middle, and Simmons's injury leaves rookie Acuff handling against Dunn and Jones. The Kings turned it over twenty times even with their full starters in preseason. Sabonis can keep his minutes level; the bench minutes are where the Clippers should pull away.
Rockets against Mavericks: in the one meeting with Houston's starters, Houston won the boards and got nearly twice as many free-throw attempts, and won by eighteen even while Dallas shot plenty of threes. Since then Dallas have lost Martin and Biberovic on top of Lively and Aldama, leaving Gafford, Washington, Cisse and Johnson Jr. to deal with Sengun and Thompson. Irving's return and Flagg give Dallas real shot-making, but a hot shooting night is a narrower route than extra possessions every quarter, and Dallas averaged close to twenty turnovers in preseason.
Lakers against Warriors: Doncic and Reaves face a Warriors guard group without Butler and Podziemski behind Curry, and without Porzingis inside, with Bassey questionable. The Lakers' ugly preseason turnover counts and bench collapse came in games Doncic did not play; with him handling against Denver the turnovers dropped sharply. Kessler controlled the glass in the only meeting he played. Curry's volume can keep it close, but the win itself leans to the home side.
That's why I'm siding with the Clippers to win clearly, and with Houston and the Lakers to win their openers.
