Pafos can establish attacking territory, but Riga have several demonstrated links from midfield receiving to a finish. That gives their meeting a competitive shape beyond the recent draw sequence. Besiktas against Palace centres on home deliveries and recovered balls meeting a visiting midfield undergoing another personnel change.
Biel gives Pafos a connection to their central striker, and their APOEL performance included sustained pressure after the interval. Riga can answer through Oulad M'Hand, Siqueira and different forward receivers: Tonisevs supplied their European equaliser, while Oulad M'Hand and Jurkovskis have found Badamosi in away matches. Pafos's older European leads also show why territory and a first goal do not automatically become protected control.
Pepe played the latest Pafos match but subsequent reports left him awaiting tests; his availability is unresolved. Riga's selection is also unconfirmed, so the case rests on demonstrated alternatives rather than an assumed returning player. I expect Pafos pressure and Riga receiving spells to alternate, with both teams able to change the central target. That's why I'm siding with Riga FC to keep the margin tight.
Besiktas created through a short corner and recovery attacks at Hoffenheim, with much of that production coming after Kokcu departed injured. Olaitan and Fakili supplied Oh, establishing alternatives to the absent captain. Palace's recent matches exposed wide defensive handovers, clearances and the pass out from pressure.
Timber started at Brighton but has since been ruled out, while Lerma's competition exclusion removes another midfield option. Disasi and Chilwell return to the available group. I expect Besiktas to seek early territory and collect the next ball around Palace's box, with fresh forwards changing the receiving options later. That's why I'm siding with Besiktas, with a level finish protected.
