Sapporo are still being treated like the side to beat at home, but their season says otherwise. They keep the ball, and they keep getting caught out when they do. Iwaki have just changed coach, and in the short time since they've shown they can beat a team that plays exactly like that. That clash of styles is what this pick is built on.
Sapporo have one league win in eight and have conceded 17 goals. The worst part is how it happens: they lost 1-4 at home to Omiya with 51.8% of the ball, then 1-4 at home to Tochigi City with 59.8% and 21 shots. They've let in a goal in seven of their eight league games.
Iwaki lost four in a row before Kazuaki Tasaka took over in early September. Since then they've beaten Yokohama FC 2-0, a match where Yokohama had 68.2% of the ball, and won 3-1 at Tosu. That's a side comfortable letting the other team have it and hitting back.
The schedule helps too. Sapporo played a cup tie against J1 side Okayama in midweek, while Iwaki come in with nearly eight days' rest.
