This is a pressing side against a passing side, and the question is what happens once the press runs out of legs. Hoffenheim play their best football early at home, hunting the ball high and throwing it long into the box. Leverkusen's identity is passing through exactly that kind of pressure. Hoffenheim are playing their third game in about eight days with a thinned midfield, so the second half is where this match should be decided.
First, the injured forwards. Leverkusen have been without Kofane, Ben Seghir and Terrier, but the unit that is left keeps producing: 5.16 expected goals at Lech, 1.64 against Freiburg and 3.10 with 33 shots in Crete. Schick, Maza and Tillman are the current attack, and it is not a weakened one.
The key duel is in the middle. Hoffenheim are without De Cat and Wimmer, and Conte went off early against Lyon, so the pair that has to track Maza has no real cover. Leverkusen completed over 90 percent of more than 600 passes in both European games, which is the kind of press resistance that turns a high press into open space behind it.
Hoffenheim do have real routes. Their last two games, against Lyon and at Gladbach, were their best of the season. Coufal's long throws are a weapon, and with Culbreath doubtful Leverkusen may play Quansah, a centre-back, at right back. The early stage of the game belongs to the home side.
The way Hoffenheim concede is the key. Besiktas made almost three expected goals after the break in Sinsheim, and Hamburg also won 3-2 there, both by keeping the ball and breaking. Ilzer himself called the workload crazy. Against Freiburg Leverkusen went behind and then took over in the second half, with Hofmann and Diaby on the bench to add late.
That's why I'm siding with Leverkusen to win on the road.
