Estoril can collect possession and shots without turning that territory into a decisive advantage. Moreirense have a direct way into the space between the home midfield and defence. The important contest is the first forward connection after possession changes, followed by control of the next attack.
Carvalho and Guitane give Estoril genuine creativity. Their improved second-half access against Viseu came after extra support freed Carvalho, but several other recent opponents kept their many attempts to modest chance quality. Moreirense can answer through Mendonca, Andrade and Vonic: those players have already combined for goals rather than merely appearing together on a team sheet.
Maracas is suspended after his cup dismissal, changing the visiting defence. Bondoso remains doubtful, while Estoril's coaching change means Raimundo's senior league approach is still a projection. The case does not depend on declaring either doubtful winger fit.
I expect Estoril to seek the initiative and Moreirense to choose moments to break beyond the first pressure. The visitors have enough specific attacking connections to contest that territory, while Estoril's finishing opportunities have been less convincing than their shot counts. That's why I'm siding with Moreirense to come away unbeaten.
