Rio Ave's preserved attacking trio meets a Famalicao side changing an important delivery role. AZ and Twente bring another contest in which possession has to reach a receiver before the opponent recovers. The strongest evidence in both matches comes from connections already used on the pitch.
Clemmensen, Bezerra and Blesa all contributed against Nacional and remained together in the cup. Liavas's corner to Blesa supplied a separate way to score against a compact opponent. Famalicao's recent Alverca performance combined long possession spells with little chance quality, while their defence was beaten by a pass behind the line and direct supply.
Gil Dias is suspended after providing useful crossing in the latest league game. Van Breemen and Aranda are available again, while Mattara remains under treatment; those are selection changes rather than demonstrated improvements in the new unit. Rio's continuing absences were already missing from the recent attack. I expect a measured opening followed by greater commitment around the established home receivers. I'm siding with Rio Ave to avoid defeat.
Twente can reach Weghorst through Zerrouki, Van Rooij and the wide players, then bring a midfielder onto the next pass. Their PSV performance showed they can make chances without dominating the ball. AZ's recent domestic games exposed through-ball and recovery spaces even when they had more possession.
Smit, Resink and Hornkamp remain unavailable, with Clasie and Goes still uncertain for AZ. Twente's missing players were also absent in Gibraltar, where Drommel continued an existing run of starts and the attacking connections remained active. Both teams played away in Europe, so I am comparing individual workloads rather than assigning an extra recovery day. I expect changes of initiative and useful Twente receiving opportunities as the wide players advance. I'm siding with Twente to avoid defeat.
