Germany's pressure and Japan's movement between the lines make the first pass out of defence the central contest. Germany create quick attacks through recoveries, wide delivery and runners arriving at the far side. Japan use width to open central pockets and connect several receivers around the box. The recent friendlies show two working attacks with different ways of finding space.
Against Australia, Germany turned recoveries into chances through Senß and Kössler, while Wamser's delivery brought Kett into the far-side attack. Japan's Haiti performance offered a different connection: Nagano anchored midfield, Hasegawa and Miyazawa worked higher, and Hamano's width helped free central receivers. That extra layer of passing gives Japan a concrete way to make Germany defend beyond its initial pressure.
Tanaka and Ueki are missing from Japan's current camp, but the Haiti match showed that the attack still had supply and finishing through Seike, Hamano, Hasegawa and the substitutes. Chiba scored and then supplied Hijikata. Germany's changed defence also has actual match experience, alongside a productive replacement striker in Kössler; this comparison comes from the players' roles rather than the length of either absence list.
I expect the opening exchanges to revolve around Germany pressing the exits and Japan seeking the spaces behind that pressure. Both teams kept creating after substitutions in their previous matches, so the contest has useful receiving options beyond the starting group. Germany allowed a close cross and header, danger from corner second balls and a late free receiver against Australia. Japan's width and moving central combinations are the part of this matchup I give most weight to, and that's why I'm siding with Japan to come away unbeaten.
