Stuttgart's high press should test Atlético's first pass and its changed central defence. Stiller and Undav can link between the lines, with wide players returning a blocked ball to the box. Atlético have their own route through the first wave into Baena and Álvarez. The game may turn on who keeps the next ball after the first shot rather than who has more territory.
Stuttgart produced heavy box pressure against Hamburg, but its current Jeltsch-Chabot pairing also gave up repeated chances to Hamburg and Paderborn. Atlético's Hjulmand and Barrios played together at Espanyol, offering a current first outlet even with Koke absent; Romero played there before a new injury, so the replacement central defender has a real assignment. Baena can hold the ball for Barrios to arrive, and Álvarez can connect from the left as Atlético did late at Espanyol. Atlético's recent chance suppression and Oblak behind the line give that attack a way to hold its work, which is why I'm siding with Atlético Madrid to win.
