Both of these matches have a clear favourite on paper, but in each one the favourite's route to a comfortable margin is narrower than the reputation suggests. Wolves create plenty without a senior striker to finish, and Liverpool's absences sit in defence and midfield rather than in attack, which tends to keep games open and closer than a big win.
Wolves v Portsmouth: Wolves out-shoot most opponents, with 20, 19 and 15 shots in their last three, but their conversion is weak. They had just 3 shots on target from 19 against Bolton, Jimenez is out until January after surgery, Armstrong is doubtful, and the manager has said he plans changes in a congested spell. Their wins this season are 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1, and in their last ten games they have won by two goals or more only a couple of times.
Portsmouth are on their third game in six days with a long injury list, but most of it has been absent for three games already and they still produced 16, 24 and 9 shots. They tend to score early in the second half, at 51, 52 and 54 minutes in three of six games, and Wolves have conceded from a short corner, a keeper error and a long shot. A Wolves win by a single goal is the most natural result, and that is why I'm siding with Portsmouth to stay within one.
Liverpool v Villarreal: Liverpool are missing Szoboszlai, Frimpong, Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni, and the real cost is on the right side and in midfield, not in the front line. They have conceded seven in their last three matches, and the heavy loss at City came after a red card at 0-0, while the win at Brentford came against ten men. Neither result shows a side that routinely wins by two clear goals.
Villarreal beat Napoli 3-1 at home while already missing Pepe and Buchanan, so they can score without their usual options, and Liverpool's flanks are where they should find space on the counter. If Liverpool score early the game can run away, but a one-goal Liverpool win, a draw or a Villarreal goal-fest all fit the pattern better. That is why I'm backing Villarreal to keep it within a goal.
