Porto and PSV will test how safely each side can move the ball out of its own half. Liverpool's pressure should give Villarreal defensive work, but the next transition may decide how wide the contest becomes. Stuttgart and Atlético both have several ways into the box, making central protection and late supply especially important.
Porto's press can reach PSV's uncertain first passes and feed Pepê or Veiga before the visitors reset. PSV still have Perišić and Mijnans as wide and central replies, but Schouten and their usual central finishers are absent, while their buildup errors were visible before the dismissal in their recent loss. Bednarek's return helps Porto contest the response. I expect Porto's recoveries and surviving box supply to produce the better sustained route. That's why I'm siding with Porto to win.
Liverpool retain Wirtz, Barcola and Isak for fast attacks and have Araújo as a corner target. Villarreal can also win a second ball and find Moleiro or a forward before Liverpool's reshaped right side resets. Frimpong is out for Liverpool; Villarreal reached the box at Elche without Pepe and responded after conceding to Napoli. Liverpool's large recent scorelines included a red-card advantage and a wide route that now needs replacing. I expect Villarreal to retain enough direct reply to stay close, so I'm siding with Villarreal.
Stuttgart can use Stiller and the fullbacks to feed Undav or Demirović, as their box access against Hamburg showed. Atlético can disrupt that first reception with Hjulmand and Barrios, then find Grimaldo, Baena or a forward in the space behind Stuttgart's advanced players. Stuttgart's recent attacks failed to convert against Hamburg and their recovery defence allowed openings against Paderborn; Atlético also retain a late bench route, with Cardoso in the travelling squad and Pubill coming off recent minutes. I expect Atlético's multiple supply paths to carry through a close contest. That's why I'm siding with Atlético Madrid.
