This season opener is a clash of two very different ways to score. Boston lives on a high volume of three-pointers, while Detroit scores inside through drives, twos and free throws. The match is likely to be decided by whether Boston's shooting volume survives a settled defence, and by which rotation looks more ready on day one of the season.
Boston's preseason offence was almost half threes: about 47 attempts a game, hit at roughly 36 percent, with two-point shooting around 54 percent. Tatum is fully back, Paul George has replaced Jaylen Brown, and Mitchell Robinson gives them a rebounding edge. They went 4-0, but only two of those games were played with the full unit, and the final preseason game was handed to end-of-bench players. Even the starting five is not settled, with Scheierman and Walsh both in the mix next to the stars.
Detroit goes the other way. Cunningham, Thompson, Duncan Robinson and Duren are back under the same coach, and the offence leaned on twos at about 59 percent and 30 to 41 free-throw attempts a game in the preseason boxes that have the split. The defence allowed only about 35 three-point attempts a game and held opponents near 49 percent on twos, which is exactly the shot volume Boston needs. Last season's meetings went Detroit's way three times out of four, though both rosters have changed since.
The absences do not change the picture. Boston's Devin Carter is out with mono, but he is a two-way player outside the rotation. Detroit's Taurean Prince is questionable for personal reasons and was not expected in the opening rotation anyway. The key names on both sides, Tatum, George, Cunningham and Duren, are all listed healthy in the latest report.
I expect a game where Boston chases its threes against a defence that makes them work, while Detroit keeps getting to the rim and the line at home. The turnover battle matters too: Detroit coughed it up a lot in preseason, but Boston does not force many steals, so the transition points may not tip the game. If Boston's shots are contested and the early quarters stay physical, Detroit's inside-out game should hold up better. That's why I'm siding with the Detroit Pistons to win outright.
