The first pass out of Barcelona's defence looks like the hinge of this match. PSG have shown they can press a strong passing side into early mistakes, while Barcelona have the midfield and wide runners to play through that pressure. Both teams have ways to regain control after an opening spell against them.
PSG's coordinated pressure can bring Vitinha and Neves onto the second ball before Pedri and Rodri face forward. Doué, Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia offer several first receivers after a regain. Barcelona can answer through Pedri's turns and Yamal's supply against PSG's reshaped left side, so this may remain close even if PSG start faster.
Barcelona's Eric and Koundé are out, and their replacements have recent minutes but have not played this defensive combination against a press like PSG's. Mendes is out for PSG, while their central midfield and attacking options survive. I expect the early pressure and those available receivers to produce PSG's best openings, with Barcelona still able to answer through the wings. That's why I'm siding with PSG.
