These two matches are built very differently, and both are easy to misread from the recent results. Sporting arrive after a bad week, but those defeats came at home and their first-choice players are rested. Elversberg have drawn blanks in three of their last four, but those came away or with a changed attack. At home, with their forwards back, they play a very different kind of game against a Mainz side still fixing its defending.
Casa Pia against Sporting is a deep block against a side with plenty of the ball. Sporting changed all eleven players for the cup, so the league starters have had five days to recover. Their two defeats this week were both at Alvalade, while their away league games have been far calmer at the back.
The matchup that matters is Casa Pia's few fast chances against Sporting's rest-defence. Casa Pia have the people for it, with Rego carrying through the middle and Araujo up front, but their home output at Rio Maior has been very low: one goal in four games, and that was a penalty. All seven of their points came on the road.
Debast, Zalazar and Nuno Santos are missing again, which pushes Sporting wider and towards more crosses. Those absences are old news, though, and already inside the recent numbers. Suarez remains the focus, and Coelho's plan is to delay and frustrate.
Expect a high start, then a nervy middle spell if it stays level. Sporting's changes around the hour are when the game should turn, because once Casa Pia have to come out, their block has given way against the strongest visitors. That's why I'm siding with Sporting.
Elversberg against Mainz is the opposite picture: two attacks aimed straight at two weak spots. Elversberg give up the ball at home and strike quickly, and their three home league games so far have been wild. Mokwa, Krattenmacher and Keidel sat out the start of the cup match, while Mainz changed only two players and five of their regulars went the full ninety.
Mainz's coach has named rest defence as a recurring problem, and they have conceded six league goals before the half-hour. That suits Elversberg's early runs and Keidel's dead balls. Going the other way, Caci returns fresh to cross for Tietz and Becker, against a box that gives up a heavy load of shots and a right side now relying on Sirch in place of Gyamerah.
The game should start quickly and stay open, because whoever falls behind has a real way to chase it. Mainz can send on Koenigsdoerffer and Hollerbach, and Elversberg have Campbell, Futkeu and Schmahl. Neither of the two defences looks ready to close this out. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
