Cleveland have the better name on the mound in this ALDS Game 2, but I think the White Sox are in the better spot. Gavin Williams has not pitched competitively since late September because of the first-round bye, and his own numbers this season are worse when he gets extra rest. Chicago are coming off a shutout win in Game 1 and have a plan for this game that has worked all year. That mix is what the pick turns on.
Williams is a real arm: 14-8, a 3.76 ERA and the American League strikeout lead. Cleveland threw a 70-pitch simulated game to keep him sharp, which tells you how they see the layoff. A simulated game is not the same as facing hitters who have been in a rhythm, and the previews point to a 5.03 ERA for him on extra rest this season. I do not want to lean on one split too hard, but it matches the picture of a starter who may need an inning or two to settle.
Chicago will once again go with an opener, Anthony Kay, and then Sean Burke as the bulk pitcher. This is their 33rd opener of the season, so nothing about it is new to them. Burke has pitched 17 innings against Cleveland this year with a 1.04 ERA, which is a small sample but a relevant one. Grant Taylor closed Game 1 and is unlikely to be used again.
The lineup is in form as well. Chicago have won most of their recent road games, scoring 6.7 runs a game over their last ten against 4.7 for Cleveland, and Munetaka Murakami keeps homering. Cleveland were held to three hits in Game 1 by a group of Chicago arms, and the White Sox have taken nine of sixteen meetings between the teams this season.
Cleveland deserve respect as the home side with the stronger starter on paper, and the bounce-back angle after a shutout is real. Still, the price for them leans on Williams' season line more than on how he has looked coming off a long break, and I would rather side with the team that is rolling.
