Cleveland and Oklahoma City both have more than one way to start an attack, but their second actions look less alike. Cleveland can move from a guard drive into an inside finish. Oklahoma City can answer through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell, then use its size for another chance. The game should turn on which side converts that extra possession into a clean shot and completes the next defensive rebound.
Harden and Donovan Mitchell can alternate as Cleveland's first creator, with Mobley and Allen finishing or passing from the middle. Oklahoma City's Phoenix win showed Ajay and McCain can supply an answer, but in its next two road games the Thunder converted 22 offensive boards into only 16 second-chance points. Cleveland has conceded boards too, so the quality of that next shot matters more than the count alone.
The current injury report removes Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Caruso and Wallace from the Thunder group that must defend these repeated actions. Those players missed the latest game; Cleveland's four main creators and finishers played its latest game. I expect the middle quarters to test Oklahoma City's replacement guards and interior cover as Cleveland changes the point of attack. That's why I'm siding with Cleveland to finish ahead.
Indiana and Atlanta can both score in bursts, but their routes after the first drive differ. Indiana's remaining attackers have shown they can finish plays, while Atlanta has several ways to create the next one. Atlanta's wings can pressure the first carrier, and Okongwu can turn a missed first shot into another chance. The important stretch is the exchange after either team makes its first run.
Jackson and Oubre can give Indiana quick points, but their latest games show little passing behind that first attack. Daniels and Dort can force the ball away from them, while Alexander-Walker and Wiggins give Atlanta another outside response. Okongwu's inside work also tests a thin Indiana center rotation.
Nembhard, Siakam and Nesmith all played major minutes in Indiana's last game and are now listed out; Nance is doubtful and Toppin questionable. Atlanta loses Flemings from its last game and Johnson is questionable, but McCollum, Alexander-Walker and Okongwu still provide distinct routes. I expect Atlanta to have the stronger second attack and the better answer after an Indiana run. That's why I'm siding with Atlanta to create a clear winning margin.
