QPR's quick deliveries and restarts meet a Burnley side that found wide openings in its first match under Celestini. Birmingham and Millwall both have routes through an initial duel into a second receiver. These matches should turn on the quality of the next pass and the protection around the box after it arrives.
Poku and Smyth can release Kone quickly, while Vale's deliveries bring Dunne into QPR's restart attacks. Burnley's Pires and Ramazani supplied crosses and shots against Portsmouth, giving them a route against QPR's full-back and far-post coverage. QPR's restarts also meet the clearance and follow-up problems Burnley showed at Lincoln.
QPR's missing alternatives include the newly injured Lloyd, but their expected starting attacking connections remain. Dembele and Saito both had meaningful substitute minutes in the last match. Burnley's Cullen, Ramsey and Banel have returned with managed workloads, giving Celestini different ways to change the receiving roles. I expect attacking handovers and another delivery after the first response, which is why I'm siding with more goals in QPR–Burnley.
Birmingham can work through Iwata into Millar and use Stansfield's movement around the visiting midfield. Millwall can bypass that pressure through Dykes, with Neghli supplying the next pass and Lisbie or Cundle arriving beyond him. Those are distinct routes to useful receptions, including after an aerial challenge or an incomplete clearance.
Metcalfe's suspension removes a midfielder who played the full Derby match, changing Millwall's recovery and passing combination. Birmingham are assessing Priske and Beadle after both left the Lincoln match, with Ducksch and Allsop among the projected alternatives. Their other supply routes remain, and Millwall retain the forward connections that can answer pressure. That's why I'm siding with more goals in Birmingham–Millwall as well.
