Sheffield United's second-ball attacks match a specific recent defensive task Preston have struggled to complete. Atlético and Bayern meet around a different hinge, with Bayern pressing the first pass and Atlético looking for the runner beyond that pressure. The important connection in each match is what happens immediately after the first contact.
United's Bristol City winner followed a partially cleared free kick, and their Wrexham winner came from a saved shot and follow-up. Preston have conceded from a recross at Stoke and a rebound against West Brom. United have also recently limited completed attacks, giving their scoring route a useful defensive foundation.
Kitching's suspension changes the central pairing, with McGuinness a recently used replacement. Chong, Donovan and Phillips have unresolved fitness questions after their latest appearances, so the established second-ball interaction carries more weight than an assumed fully restored away lineup. I expect United to seek the first sustained spell and Preston to use direct receivers and supporting touches. That's why I'm siding with Sheffield United to win.
Bayern retain Kimmich's delivery and Kane's ability to connect to the next runner. Atlético have an executed escape of their own: Oblak began the Levante move, Barrios passed through pressure and Baena released Giuliano behind the defence. Bayern's recent turnover and second-ball concessions make that sequence relevant to this opponent.
Hjulmand's European suspension and Cardoso's absence change Atlético's central screen, while Koke has returned to training. Bayern have lost Saibari and Gnabry after their Dortmund injuries, but continued creating after those substitutions; Olise has trained and travelled with his exact use unannounced. The opening should revolve around Bayern's pressure and Atlético's exit, with later attacking changes altering the receiving points. That's why I'm expecting goals between Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich.
